No. 21 BYU vs No. 9 Baylor: Preview and Prediction
A rematch of future Big 12 titans is set to take place Saturday in Provo. The no. 9 Baylor Bears are the first top 10 team to play in Provo since no. 10 Wisconsin visited in 2017. As BYU fans remember, the Bears beat the Cougars 38-24 in Waco last season, but a lot can change in a year. How much has changed? Let’s get into it.
Overview
If there is a game that BYU had circled coming into this season, it’s this one. And why wouldn’t it be? Baylor is the defending Big 12 champion, a future conference mate, and the deliverer of one of the most physical beatdowns a BYU team has seen in the last 5 years. By Kalani Sitake’s own admission, Baylor is a program BYU wants to be like.
There will be a lot of new faces suiting up for the Bears this week, but most of the ones that haunt the nightmares of BYU fans are still on the roster. Of the 27 players that played at least 20 snaps against the Cougars in 2021, 14 will suit up on Saturday. 9 of those 14 weigh over 265 pounds. This also means that while Baylor is loaded up front, they have had to largely rebuild their skill position units, though reload might be a better word after a 69-10 drubbing of Albany in week one.
Baylor’s Offense
Baylor’s offensive success is directly tied to their offensive line unit. Former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes revamped the position from being PFFs 83rd ranked pass blocking group in 2020 to 3rd in just one season. Baylor returns 4 of the 5 starters from last year, led by LT Connor Galvin. Galvin was the PFF’s third-ranked pass blocker in 2021, ranked behind only Wake Forrest’s Zach Tom and BYU’s Blake Freeland. The offensive line got off to a shaky start though, allowing pressures on 25% of drop backs and giving up 6 tackles for loss against Albany.
Baylor’s skill position players are largely brand new, starting sophomores at quarterback, running back, and all three wide receiver positions. New starting QB Blake Shapen, though, is a name BYU fans will want to remember going forward. Shapen has been impressive, throwing 7 TDs and 0 INTs in 106 career attempts. He threw for 3 of those touchdowns on an 82% completion rate in the Big 12 title game last year against one of the nation’s top defenses in Oklahoma State.
Baylor’s Defense
The Bears' defense mirrors their offense. Loaded up front, inexperienced in the back. BYU left guard Clark Barrington draws the unpleasant task of containing the 368 lb and former BYU commit Siaki Ika in what is quietly one of the best two-player matchups of the college football season. The Baylor front stifled BYU's rushing attack last season, but the Cougars were not alone. Baylor had the 17th ranked rush defense in 2021, holding opponents to just 120 yards per game.
Baylor is most vulnerable in the secondary. Jaren Hall torched them last year for 342 yards passing and 1 touchdown. Baylor returns a trio of seniors this year in the defensive backfield in Al Walcott, Christian Morgan, Mark Milton. While they only gave up 54% completions to Albany, busted coverages led to a handful of explosive plays for the Great Danes.
Prediction
This is a sneaky pick for the national game of the week and is destined to be one of the most physical games of the year. BYU’s offensive line will be much improved from last year's matchup, which featured a group riddled with injuries and new starters. Wide receivers Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua are reportedly out for Saturday, which is obviously a huge blow. However, I still expect BYU’s offensive output to look much improved against last year's output given the experienced offensive line and the return of Jaren Hall.
The most important matchup of the night is Baylor’s offense line against BYU's front seven. Again, BYU will look much different this year with the return of Keenan Pili and the emergence of Ben Bywater and Max Tooley. BYU held USF to just 109 rushing yards last week and looked a lot better than most give them credit for.
Both offenses will be able to put up numbers. Baylor’s secondary had no answers for BYU’s passing attack last season and Baylor is less experienced this time around. If BYU can show any signs of life in the run game, they will move the ball just fine, even without Nacua.
On the flipside, I expect to see a very aggressive defensive game plan from BYU. Blake Shapen is making just his second career road start and is 8 of 22 passing for 70 yards when pressured against FBS opponents. BYU has a knack for forcing young quarterbacks to make mistakes in Lavell Edwards Stadium and that will be key here. Baylor will still put up points, but BYU and the ROCous crowd will force them into just enough mistakes to pull out the win.
BYU 35, Baylor 31
