Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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Florida State is putting their three-game ACC winning streak on the line as they travel to South Bend to play Notre Dame, a place they've only won twice ever in seven tries, with one of those taking a Trent Forrest game-winner.
This game will be at 2:15 p.m. on the CW Network at the Joyce Center in South Bend, Indiana.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Breakdown (7-9 Overall, 2-3 ACC)
Notre Dame is in its first season under new head coach Micah Shrewsberry, who comes to South Bend after an impressive stint at Penn State. Following in the footsteps of a well-renowned coach in Mike Brey isn't easy, and Shrewsberry had his work cut out for him with this roster.
You can make the argument that Notre Dame has the least talented roster in the ACC. If you use the infamous blue-chip ratio that you see in college football, Notre Dame is tied for last in the ACC for the lowest amount of former blue-chip players (Boston College and Clemson are the other two), but Notre Dame hasn't gotten the quality of transfers or international players to make up for it.
The fact that Notre Dame has two ACC wins, including a 22-point win over Virginia, is honestly incredible considering their lack of talent, speaking to the coaching Shrewsberry provides. They've played three of their first five ACC games at home, beating Virginia, and falling closely to NC State and Duke in games that came down to the final minutes, so Florida State shouldn't expect to just walk in and get a win. This will be a fight. The Irish do have a couple of eye-opening losses to Georgetown and Citadel, but they were missing a few of their top players against Citadel.
Notre Dame has been one of the worst offenses in the country, having one of the slowest paces in the country, shooting 40.1% from the field, 28.9% from 3 (and they take a fair amount of 3s), turn it over on 20.3% of their possessions, and don't get to the free throw line. Of their 16 games, they've only scored 70 points or more four times, and one of those was their last overtime win against Georgia Tech.
They win games with their defense, holding teams to an average of 65.1 PPG and 40.4% on field goals. The Irish also don't really foul and do a good enough job on the defensive glass to keep the second-chance points down.
If there's one name to remember, it's true freshman guard Markus Burton. He's currently the only player on the team averaging more than 9.5 PPG or 1.0 APG, and he's well past both marks at 15.9 PPG and 4.1 APG. He also gets his fair share of rebounds despite being listed at 5'11". His height is going to come into play in this game. Whether his speed and quickness is a mismatch against Florida State's length, or he gets bullied on both ends because of his stature, it's something to keep an eye on. The offense basically starts and ends with him, as his shot attempts alone are equal to the next two highest scorers combined.
Notre Dame does feature two taller wings in Carey Booth and Tae Davis, both listed above 6'9", which will help them match up with FSU on the perimeter. They also have a 6'10" big man in Kebba Njie. Njie is out there strictly to rebound, shooting just 4 shots per game at a 34% clip. Davis is the better scorer of the bunch, but these guys are really all out there to rebound.
JR Konieczny is second on the team in scoring at 9.4 PPG, but actually leads the team in rebounding at 6.0 boards per game at 6'6" playing the 2 or the 3, depending on the lineup.
Off of the bench are two shot-happy guards: Braeden Shrewsberry (yes, the son of the coach) and Julian Roper II. Both take 7+ shots per game, most of which come from 3. Shrewsberry had 25 points against Georgia Tech Tuesday night, shooting 5/9 from downtown, so you have to know where these guys are, even if they normally don't make them at a high percentage.
No one shoots higher than 33.3% from 3 (holdover Matt Zona, plays about 10 minutes per game), but that doesn't mean you stop guarding from distance. It's the ACC, anyone can shoot if they're open enough.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (9-6 Overall, 3-1 ACC)
Florida State has won three straight ACC games to start 2024, with Tuesday's win over Wake Forest being the tone-setter. That's the game people can look at and go "There's something here with this team that can win games." Part of it is the chaotic nature of their defense, a defense unlike anything else in the ACC.
It's similar to what preparing for the prime Jim Boeheim 2-3 defense was like in practice. Most ACC teams are used to playing a certain way because a lot of teams play a similar type of defense. Florida State's length, athleticism, and ball pressure are something no team really has the manpower to prepare for. That's not to say it can't be beaten, because it clearly can be, but it's just so different. Florida State being able to full-court press with a 6'7" point guard and a 6'11" wing is just extra-terrestrial.
On top of that, when guys like Darin Green Jr are playing with the energy and hustle that he was playing with Tuesday night, it's easy to spread to the rest of the team. Energy and effort go as far as anything.
Baba Miller is finally starting to turn a corner and it was on full display Tuesday night with 14 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He's still learning that he can score on just about anyone as a mismatch on the win, so I'd love for him to be more aggressive, but you can tell he's more focused on the defensive end than he was even just a month ago.
I am curious to see how Florida State plays on the road, as it's been six weeks since they played a true road game (December 2 at UNC) and five weeks since they even left the Tucker Center (December 9, Orange Bowl Classic against USF in Sunrise, FL). Part of why FSU may have had success in the last couple of weeks is because they've been able to get comfortable at home. Hopefully, they can continue that momentum this weekend.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Jaylan Gainey left the Georgia Tech game with a limp and may have tweaked his knee, but I don't think it'll impact his status.
Projected Starters
Notre Dame
G: Markus Burton
G: J.R. Konieczny
F: Carey Booth
F: Tae Davis
F: Kebba Njie
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: De'Ante Green
Keys to the Game
Head of the Snake: Markus Burton
For those who have followed my previews for a while, you know about my "Head of the Snake" theory- cut the head of the snake off, and the body dies. I expect Florida State to try and do that here with Notre Dame and cut off Markus Burton, who clears the rest of the team in points and assists.
Expect Burton to be double-teamed on the inbounds after made FSU buckets, escorted up the floor so he can't get the ball back, and to be heavily denied in half-court offense to minimize his impact as much as possible.
I also expect FSU to attack him on the other end, as they did with Kevin "Boopie" Miller to start the Wake Forest game, by putting Jalen Warley in the post against him early and often.
Take Advantage of the Turnovers
Notre Dame is one of the worst teams in the country at taking care of the basketball, with a turnover rate on the season of 20.3%. Florida State just turned Wake Forest over, one of the better teams in the country at protecting the rock, on 25.3% of possessions. There's no reason for their ball pressure to not continue making a massive impact.
FSU needs to be on top of these turnovers, forcing live ball situations and easy baskets on the other end. If Notre Dame is going to win games, it's going to be on the defensive end, so getting as many easy baskets as possible will be a priority.
Bench Impact
Florida State's bench let them down Tuesday against Wake Forest, but they still did enough with their starters to get away with a win. That can't be the trend moving forward. Primo Spears needs to be more efficient and play with more control, while Cam Corhen and Chandler Jackson need to continue finding rhythms; they're going to be big pieces throughout the season.
On the other end, Notre Dame really only has two guys off of the bench: Braeden Shrewsberry (who just scored 25 points in Notre Dame's overtime victory against Georgia Tech) and Julian Roper II (second on the team in 3PT% at 32.7%). Simply put, these two cannot have a big impact on this game if FSU expects to win. If Shrewsberry has another big game, it elevates the rest of the team and will force FSU into changing some of their defensive gameplan, something they don't want to do.
Game Prediction
Florida State is favored by 1 point, with an over/under of 133.5.
I said I wouldn't pick FSU to win again until they won a game they weren't supposed to, which they did Tuesday night against Wake Forest, so I'm free to pick normally again. Realistically, Notre Dame is less talented and Florida State is more talented than when these two played last season in South Bend, when Florida State won 84-71, though then Notre Dame coach Mike Brey had clearly checked out and his mind on retirement. FSU should be able to turn Notre Dame over near a 22% mark, and it's tough to pick a team to lose in that scenario.
Florida State 69 Notre Dame 62
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