2024 NCAA Tournament: Latest betting odds for Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Zags enter second-round matchup as 4.5-point favorites over the Jayhawks

Author:
Cole Forsman
Mar 23, 2024

In this story:

NCAA Tournament

Kansas Jayhawks

Gonzaga Bulldogs

March Madness

The 5-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs are the betting favorites to advance to their ninth-consecutive Sweet 16 when they take on the 4-seed Kansas Jayhawks in the 2024 NCAA Tournament second round in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The Zags (26-7, 14-2 WCC) will enter Saturday's game as 4.5-point favorites over the Jayhawks (23-10, 10-9 Big 12), who will be without their leading scorer in Kevin McCullar Jr. Bill Self ruled out the 6-foot-6 fifth-year senior from the NCAA Tournament due to knee soreness. McCullar Jr. averaged 18.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists to earn All-Big 12 first team honors.

While its star wing was in and out of the lineup over the last month, Kansas struggled down the stretch of conference play. Its lost four of its past six games and has made just 25.0% of its 3-point attempts in that stretch, which ranks 345th in the nation according to Bart Torvik. On the defensive end, the Jayhawks have allowed their opponents to shoot 38.3% from beyond the arc since Feb. 27.

On the other side, few teams have been as efficient on the offensive end of the floor over the last six weeks as the Bulldogs. Winners of 10 of their last 11 games, they rank third in offensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage and fifth in 2-point field goal percentage in the country since Feb. 4, according to Torvik, and have the eighth-lowest turnover rate in that stretch. Nine of those wins have come by double-digits, including Thursday's 86-65 win over McNeese State, and by an average margin of 17.7 points

Shots from the perimeter are falling more frequently than they did earlier in the season. During their hot stretch the Zags have shot 41.0% on their 3-point attempts, the fifth-best mark in the country since earlier February. Much of that stems from the backcourt, as Nolan Hickman is shooting 51.9% on 3.8 3-point attempts; Ryan Nembhard shoots 38.9% on 3.3 attempts from deep in that stretch.

Still, Saturday's battle between bluebloods could come down to interior play. Both teams get over 58% of their points from 2-pointers and shoot better than 55% inside the arc according to KenPom. Keeping their opponents off the offensive boards has also been a specialty for the Zags and Jayhawks, as each averages 28.2 defensive rebounds per game (tied for 19th-best nationally).

That means a lot of attention will be on the battle between Graham Ike (16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds per game) and Hunter Dickinson (18.0 points, 11.1 rebounds per game). Dickinson has the height advantage at 7-foot-2, but few defenders have been able to slow Ike over the past month. Gonzaga's 6-foot-9 bruiser has put up 19.9 points per game on 62.4% shooting from the field over his last 10 games.

Gonzaga is 14-15 against the spread and has covered in four of its last five games according to covers.com. It's 4-4 ATS in neutral site games and has covered in five of its eight games in which it has a rest advantage over its opponent, per teamrankings.com.

Kansas is 13-18 ATS and has failed to cover in five of its last six games. Nine of the team's 10 losses have come away from home (5-12 ATS in neutral site and away games combined). The Jayhawks haven't covered in four of their previous six games as underdogs.