Gonzaga vs. Grand Canyon prediction: Bulldogs' size, offense is key in NCAA Tournament West Region matchup
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If there's anything this season has taught Gonzaga men's basketball fans, it's never to underestimate the possibility of an upset.
That lesson will be kept in mind when the No. 3 Bulldogs play No. 14 Grand Canyon at 4:35 p.m. PT Friday at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
Gonzaga (25-8) has won nine games in a row, with the latest victory coming over Saint Mary's in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship in Las Vegas. The Bulldogs also boast the top offense in the country, according to KenPom's ratings.
Grand Canyon (24-11) has defeated six consecutive opponents, with four of those wins coming during its championship run in the Western Athletic Conference Tournament.
After finishing the regular season in a three-way tie for fourth in the WAC, the Lopes took down three higher-seeded teams en route to winning the conference title.
“We know they had their backs against the wall, and if they wanted to make it, they had to win their conference,” Gonzaga senior forward Drew Timme said. “They took care of business. They’re a team that obviously performs well under high pressure, and there’s not much more pressure than what we’re both about to walk into.
Grand Canyon relies on a small-ball lineup with only one player taller than 6-foot-7 in its usual rotation. This could create a challenge for Gonzaga, which uses two traditional big men, but Timme also sees an opportunity to overpower his opponents in the paint.
“I definitely think their small-ball lineup is a double-edged sword,” Timme said. “They’re really good at spacing the floor and getting mismatches. But at the end of the day, they have to guard ‘Ton’ (Anton) and I as well, so it’s kind of going to be who takes advantage of that first. It’ll be an interesting game of chess.”
Timme and Anton Watson average a combined 32.2 points per game. Both players make over 61% of their field goal attempts.
The Zags will likely place most of their defensive attention on Grand Canyon's backcourt, which features guard Ray Harrison, who made the All-WAC first team.
Harrison averages a team-high 17.7 points and 3.6 assists per game. He's also third on the Lopes in made 3-pointers with 48 on a 32.4% clip.
Grand Canyon has several other high-volume shooters, including guard Chance McMillian, who has made 58 3-pointers on a 44.6% mark this season.
The Lopes are 14th in the nation in 3-point accuracy at 38.3%.
“Really scary,” Zags coach Mark Few said. “I watched them the other day make 10 3s in a half. They’re on an incredible run right now. They’re seeing a huge basket.”
However, the Lopes will meet their match in terms of 3-point marksmanship, as Gonzaga shoots 38.7% from beyond the arc, the 11th-best mark in the country.
Julian Strawther has made a team-high 72 3-pointers on a 42.6% clip, which has helped him blossom into a role as the Zags' clear-cut second scoring option.
If Strawther is able to find an offensive rhythm, Grand Canyon is in trouble. Gonzaga is 17-0 this season when the 6-foot-7 wing has at least 15 points.
It won't be a surprise when the Lopes struggle to keep pace with KenPom's top-ranked offense on Friday.
The pick: Gonzaga 82, Grand Canyon 65
