Why Gonzaga to the Mountain West Conference makes sense

Even if it weren't for the WCC's struggles, the MWC would still lay claim as the best mid-major conference in the country to this point in the season. Per KenPom, the MWC is ranked seventh out of the 33 leagues across the country, while the WCC is 11th — just behind the Missouri Valley Conference, which ended last season ranked 16th. The top tier group of teams in the MWC carries its ranking, with seven programs ranked inside KenPom's top 100 — compared to just three from the WCC.

Nine of the MWC's 11 schools have above .500 records, with San Diego State (13-2), Utah State (14-1) and Colorado State (13-2) all appearing in the latest AP Top 25 poll. Those three, along with Nevada (14-1) are in line for a spot in the NCAA Tournament while New Mexico (13-2) is likely a bubble team according to the latest edition of ESPN Bracketology. If things continue to trend in the right direction, the MWC could be a five-bid league for the first time since 2013 after sending four teams in 2022 and 2023. For comparison, the Pac-12 is projected to send four teams and the ACC is expected to send five, putting the MWC in rare air as a mid-major league.

Lastly, a look at the NET Rankings would indicate more of the same. Five MWC schools sit inside the top 35 and ahead of Gonzaga at 45th currently, while Boise State (70th) would be a Quad 1 game on the road based on its ranking inside the top 75. The WCC has three inside the NET's top 50 (San Francisco is 46th, Saint Mary's at No. 50) before a major drop off to Santa Clara (103rd) and the rest of the league even further down outside the top 200.

As much as rankings and polls get discredited with the amount of parity in college basketball these days, the data does matter when it comes to NCAA Tournament seeding, which does in fact impact a team's chances of a deep postseason run. Since 1985, No. 1 seeds have won 24 of the last 37 national championships and have made up 40.1% of the 152 Final Four participants in that span. The success of No. 2 seeds is a considerable drop-off, with only five winning the national title. For Gonzaga specifically, the program has been to two championship games and has made it to at least the Sweet 16 in four of the five times it earned a No. 1 seed.

Mark Few understands building a resume is critical to earning a high seed in the Big Dance, that's why he's scheduled difficult nonconference slates for his program over the last few seasons to counteract the Quad 3 and 4 games scattered in WCC play. That wouldn't be an issue in the MWC, which would feature four Quad 1 games at home and two more on the road for Gonzaga if it faced that league schedule this season.

Scheduling quality nonconference opponents will be trickier as conferences around the country expand to 18 and 20 teams, thus adding more league games to accommodate. The WCC is no exception, as the temporary additions of Oregon State and Washington State University likely mean an 18-game schedule is in the works for 2024-25 and 2025-26. That's going to take away opportunities for Quad 1 and 2 games in November and December, which likely won't sit well with the Bulldogs as they try to prepare for the rigors of March. 

A move to the MWC would take away the stress of trying to plan multiple home-and-home series years down the line. There will still be marquee matchups in nonconference play — Gonzaga has multi-year arrangements with Kentucky, UConn and San Diego State currently — but for the most part, the Bulldogs would see plenty of stiff competition in what would be the premier basketball conference in the West.

The WCC helped its basketball brand by adding the Cougars and Beavers for the next two seasons, but it's unclear what happens to the former Pac-12 schools after the 2025-26 season concludes. Anyone who thinks they know what will happen over the next two years is kidding themselves in this day of college athletics, but based on what the two schools have done with football, it's hard to envision both will stick around in the WCC for long.

That's because the MWC already scooped up both schools' football programs in a scheduling arrangement that will see Oregon State and WSU each play six games against MWC schools next fall. They aren't officially members and can't compete for the MWC championship, but the MWC "would have interest in a long-term partnership" with Oregon State and WSU once the financials are sorted out with the Pac-12, per CBS Sports. Football is obviously in the driver's seat, and given the WCC doesn't sponsor football, it doesn't make much sense for the Pac-12 schools to stick around if another league can be a home for all their Division-I sports.

Oregon State and WSU have already made their intentions of rebuilding the Pac-12 clear they landed control of the conference from the defecting 10 schools. They'll have until 2026 to operate with less than eight teams, which doesn't leave a lot of time to bring in six other mid-major programs. A tug-of-war with the MWC over some of its members could determine the outcome, but it's more likely that the two schools will join the MWC.

Regardless, it's hard to rationalize a world in which Gonzaga puts its future on hold for two years while Oregon State and WSU figure things out. The WCC would go back down to its current nine teams — unless commissioner Stu Jackson is able to bring in more quality programs to the league in that time — and the Bulldogs will be right back to square one. Like Few preaches to his players, it's better to be proactive rather than reactive.

Of course, any move Gonzaga makes will be centered around money. The WCC made changes to how it distributes tournament revenue to entice the Bulldogs to stay back in 2018. The MWC wouldn't make such changes for Gonzaga at that time, but with Gloria Nevarez at the helm, the league might open its pocketbook if it meant landing a major boost to its basketball profile.

In March, Nevarez told Nevada Sportsnet that she "would be in favor" of a weighted revenue distribution if it helped strengthen the MWC. Thanks in large part to San Diego State's run to the 2023 NCAA title game, the league earned a projected $16 million payout from its eight units earned in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The WCC brought in $12 million off six units, four of which were from Gonzaga's appearance in the Elite Eight.

On the TV side of things, the MWC is nearing the end of its six-year, $270 million contract with CBS and Fox Sports. The deal, which runs through 2026, pays each member roughly $4 million annually from revenue, four times more than the previous TV arrangement. The details of the WCC's contract with ESPN+ and CBS Sports Network are unknown, but it's not crazy to think the MWC's deal is more lucrative in comparison.

Neither league can compete with the Big 12 when it comes to generating revenue for its members, though sharing said revenue with a non-football school doesn't sit well with some league officials. The conference still needs to rework its media deal with ESPN and FOX to factor in the additions of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. Once that's settled, Gonzaga would likely be forced to take a pay cut of the league's TV revenue without football, at least until commissioner Brett Yormark figures out a way to separate basketball and football contracts.

For all the ways in which the WCC has favored Gonzaga over the last few years, the lack of perennial NCAA Tournament teams will hurt the league long-term. The MWC has been a multi-bid league in 19 of the last 21 tournaments, providing the league with more opportunities for revenue through consistency. Not to mention Nevarez's apparent willingness to favor a school like Gonzaga when it comes time to settle TV deals.

Often the afterthought in most conference realignment moves, travel could play a key role in how Gonzaga plays its cards. There are 17 other Division-I teams to fund and support outside of men's basketball (another incentive to take the bigger TV payout), and cross-country trips to Morgantown, West Virginia, wouldn't be cost-friendly for the sports that don't generate revenue. A move to the Big 12 or Big East would see a lot of travel and time outside of class for Gonzaga's student-athletes.

A transition to the MWC, however, wouldn't create as big of a hassle. The furthest trip Gonzaga would have to make in league play would be nearly 1,300 miles south to San Diego State's campus, which is just a 10-minute drive away from where it would normally play league games at the University of San Diego. Las Vegas is familiar territory as well, with other trips to schools in California, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and New Mexico being more viable for all sports compared to 2,000-mile treks to schools in Texas and the greater Midwest.

The proximity of WCC schools to Spokane has been a plus for Gonzaga over the years. But if the league isn't a viable option, there's still a chance to play quality basketball opponents along the West Coast in the MWC.