Missouri at Kansas Preview

The Border War returns to Lawrence on Saturday as the Kansas Jayhawks look to continue their streak of big wins against its rival the Missouri Tigers. Two years ago in Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas dropped 102 on its way to a 37-point victory. Last year in Columbia, nearly matched the year before, winning 95-67. What will this year look like? Here’s what to expect from the Tigers.

Opponent Overview

Team: Missouri

Record: 7-2

KenPom: 80

Line: TBD (KenPom has KU by 13)

Team Form

It’s tough to know what to make of Missouri’s resume so far. The loss to Memphis was understandable. The home loss to Jackson State (who was 1-5 at the time) was not. The Tigers do have road wins at Minnesota and Pittsburgh, but neither of those teams have a win in the top 50 in KenPom and they combine for just one win in the top 100.

The Pittsburgh (48) win is Missouri’s only victory over a top-100 KenPom team, though Minnesota is right at 100 and the most recent victory was against No. 101 Wichita State.

Players to Watch

Missouri’s unquestioned best player so far has been senior Sean East, a 6-3 guard who is coming off consecutive 20-point games and is averaging a team high 16.8 points per game and 3.4 assists. Most impressively, he’s made 13-21 three-pointers to start the season. Forward Noah Carter — 12.6 points and 6.2 boards — and guard Nick Honor — 11.8 points and 2.1 assists — are the only other two Tigers averaging double figures on the year.

But MU does have a player Kansas is all too familiar with: former Iowa State Cyclone Caleb Grill. Grill is averaging 8.4 points and 5.8 rebounds but is coming off a 13-point, 10-rebound performance against WSU. Six-eight forward Aiden Shaw has been starting the last few games but only averages 16.7 minutes. The previous starter was 7-3 Senior Connor Vanover, who despite his massive frame only averages four points and 3.2 boards in 11.8 minutes per game.

Matchups to Watch

The Tigers are a guard-oriented team, and it shows. Missouri takes 46.7% of its shots from three and is making 35.4% of them. It also shoots decently from two but doesn’t take that many and it’s not out of aggressiveness. MU is 262nd in offensive rebound percentage and 288th at getting to the line. When they score inside, it’s more in transition, as the Tigers like to create steals and play at a faster tempo.

On the other end, Missouri gives up a ton of offensive rebounds, but the question is can Kansas take advantage and be aggressive on the glass? Another weakness in Missouri’s two losses is live-ball turnovers. Memphis had seven steals against MU, while Jackson State had 12. Kansas has not been a havoc-forcing defense so far this year but could have opportunities in this matchup.

Finally, it’s a contrast of styles when it comes to who is on the floor. The Tigers are 89th nationally in bench minutes while Kansas is much closer to the bottom. Missouri has 11 players who see the floor at least eight minutes per game and only has one (East) who gets north of 30.

Prediction

The Phog is going to be absolutely bananas on Saturday, with Thomas Robinson’s jersey retirement only adding to the fanfare. Kansas was up for UCONN, so I would imagine the Jayhawks will be up for this one, too. Especially when you have Dajuan Harris from Columbia and Parker Braun, who started his career at Missouri.

Missouri’s three-point shooting makes this a wide-variance game to pick. It could keep them in it, much like UCONN’s did, but Missouri isn’t nearly as talented as the Huskies and this will by far be the toughest environment this group has played in this year. I’ll take Kansas to win by double digits.

Kansas 86, Missouri 68

Record ATS: 6-3

Record Straight Up: 8-1

(Last game: Kansas 88, Kansas City 69)