27 Days Until Kansas Football: Oklahoma State Preview
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Oklahoma State did not get an invitation to the SEC like its in-state rival, but it is coming off its best season in a decade where the Cowboys went 12-2 with a Big 12 Championship Game appearance, win over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, and seventh-place finish in the final AP poll.
How much of that team is coming back and can OSU replicate that success in 2022? Let’s dive into the Cowboys.
Pre-Game Notes
Like a handful of Big 12 teams this century, Oklahoma State has had the upper hand over Kansas in the majority of recent contests. The Cowboys have won the last 12 matchups with the Jayhawks and last year’s 55-3 win was the largest margin of victory in the series history.
Still, the overall series isn’t as lopsided as you might think. Oklahoma State leads the all-time series 40-29-3, but the Jayhawks have had two separate seven-game winning streaks and a six-game winning streak. It’s just been a while. Kansas’ lone victory in the 21st century came in 2007 (it’s worth noting the teams didn’t play in 04, 05, 08, or 09).
Mike Plank Four-Down Scouting Report
First Down
A conversation about Oklahoma State has to start with the defense. The Cowboys gave up just 18.1 points per game in 2021—ninth best nationally—but that got even better during conference play. Its 15.9 ppg and 4.58 yards per play in league games was the best by a Big 12 team in the last decade.
If that continues this year, it will be with a new group. The Cowboys’ defense lost eight starters possessing nearly 240 starts between them. But more so, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles went to Ohio State and has been replaced with Derek Mason, who came in after just one year at Auburn.
Second Down
Oklahoma State does have All-Big-12 quarterback Spencer Sanders back for a fourth season and coming off a year with 2,839 yards through the air, 668 yards on the ground, and 26 total touchdowns. His 3,507 total yards were the most in the Big 12, but so were his 12 interceptions (tied with West Virginia's Jarret Doege).
Third Down
What Sanders won’t have is his 1,216-yard rusher in Jaylen Warren, his 1,000-yard receiver Tay Martin, or two of his starting linemen. Dominic Richardson is now the top back, racking up 373 yards on 79 attempts in 2021. At receiver, success may come down to some inexperienced question marks. The Cowboys have two four-star freshmen—Ollie Gordon and CJ Brown—to help Brennan Presley, who was second on the team last year with 619 yards and five touchdowns.
Fourth Down
Mike Gundy and his mullet are still in charge, but he’s not 40 anymore. Gundy is leading the program for an 18th season as he gets ready to celebrate his 55th birthday. And one of Sanders’ backups at QB? That would be redshirt freshman and son of Mike Gundy, Gunnar Gundy.
Matchup On Paper
The Cowboys of recent years have focused its offense on the run game. Oklahoma State averaged 44 rushing attempts per game in 2021, and Warren’s 256 rushes were just one shy of Baylor’s Abram Smith for the most in the Big 12.
In terms of the passing game, the big-play wasn’t a huge threat, as the Cowboys had only 14 completions of more than 30 yards. But it did lead the conference in 20-yard passes with 49. Sanders’ numbers and the Cowboys’ overall record also benefited from the defense. The Athletic’s Max Olson points out that Sanders threw nine interceptions in Oklahoma State's own territory last year, tied for worst in the country, but only three of those turnovers turned into opponent touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense only gave up an average of 87.6 yards on the ground and 2.7 yards per carry. That was the case against Kansas, when the Jayhawks only gained 99 yards on 33 carries on the ground and Miles Kendrick was the leading rusher with 32 yards on nine carries.
Way-too-Early Trend Lines
Vegas is expecting the Cowboys to take a slight step back in 2022, with the win total set at 8.5 games, according to DraftKings. It makes sense. Along with the changes that we’ve already seen, six of Oklahoma State’s 12 wins were by single digits. This is not to say that the Cowboys were lucky, just that several could have gone either way depending on a few plays.
While the defense is going to look different, also keep an eye on the game total over/unders. Nine of the Cowboys 14 games in 2021 ended with a total of 51 or fewer points.
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