How Does ESPN FPI Predict Oklahoma State at West Virginia?
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Oklahoma State is gearing up for its fourth straight game as underdogs, though they won two of those in a row, coming against Kansas State and Kansas. Now, the Cowboys are 3.5-point underdogs to the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Both the Cowboys and Mountaineers are 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference play six games into the college football season.
Defensively, the Mountaineers have the advantage in this one, and the Cowboys offense will have to build on the momentum it has built over the past few weeks, including converting on third downs and completing drives.
Based on the stats, which are eerily similar on paper, ESPN's FPI program predicts the Mountaineers to come away with this game. They have a 61.3 percent chance to take the home victory, whereas the Cowboys have a 37.8 percent chance to come away with the upset.
Now, the Cowboys aren't foreign to upset wins. Again, they took down Kansas State and Kansas over the past two weeks. Their offense looks much more legit, and the defense has tightened up.
Those two wins, however, were in Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, giving them home field advantage. Now, they're headed to Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers in their home stadium, though the Cowboys have taken the last four matchups in Morgantown.
Again for the Cowboys, an early start to the game is huge. Playing from behind on the road isn't feasible, but getting in the driver's seat and letting Ollie Gordon control the game gives them a much better chance for yet another upset win.
Though things look good for West Virginia, this game feels like one that likely comes down to late-game execution. The ESPN projection thinks West Virginia will come away with a decent win, but the Cowboys have shown they're going to fight, and this game won't be an easy one for either team.
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