Preview: Tennessee and Arkansas Under the Lights

The Vols are set to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks this Saturday night in Fayetteville. Both teams come in with a record of 2-3, however Arkansas was a call the SEC admitted they blew away from beating Auburn. This matchup appears to be of pretty evenly matched teams; however, it feels like the two programs are moving in different directions. Arkansas is coming off a loss to Texas A&M, but the Hogs were competitive against the Aggies and in the game throughout. The Vols are coming off a desperately needed bye week in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Tennessee has been blown out in all three losses, primarily due to shockingly poor offensive play. Sam Pittman and his Razorbacks should be sitting at 3-2 through an All-SEC schedule, after not having won a conference game in two years previous. Tennessee was prepared to build on a strong end to the 2019 season, but turnovers and a floundering offense in their losses have seen them lose that momentum. In short, Arkansas is ahead of schedule in year one under Sam Pittman and exceeding expectations, while the Vols are struggling and falling short of their goals. So, what should things look like Saturday night in Razorback Stadium?

Although too much is regularly made of the quarterback position, it is the performance from this spot that is the likely tipping point in the contest. Felipe Franks came to Arkansas as a graduate transfer from Florida after suffering a terrible leg injury in 2019. Franks rehabbed and came to Arkansas for a fresh start, and he has found success under Pittman. Tennessee fans are well acquainted with Franks due to his time at Florida, but he has taken a step forward with Arkansas. He has brought stability to the Razorback offense, and his arm strength, which allows him to threaten the entire field, has been a key part of the Razorback offense. The Hogs can throw any type of routes they choose, but Franks allows for big play potential if opposing defensive backs make mistakes. He has also cut down on his turnovers, the biggest problem he had early in his career. Franks has thrown for over 1200 yards this season, and has thrown 12 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. The play calling and the offense the Razorbacks have built around Franks shows that the senior has the trust of the staff and helps make the offense go.

In contrast, the Vols come in having named Jarrett Guarantano the starter for yet another game. Guarantano comes in with only 3 interceptions on the season as well, but two of those were returned for touchdowns in back-to-back drives against Kentucky. Guarantano also has an issue with ball security, having put the ball on the ground six times in the last three games, with one of those being returned for a touchdown as well. The upside the Hogs have gotten from Franks isn't there either, as Guarantano has thrown only 6 touchdown passes this season and is only completing 61% of his passes, while his average yards per completion is just 5.7 over the last three games. Aside from the Georgia game, Guarantano has been well protected by his offensive line, and he had a talented group of receivers and a strong running game at his disposal. Teams have shown little fear of the Tennessee passing game, loading up to stop the run and take away short or screen passes. They have dared Tennessee to beat them with their quarterback going downfield, and the Vols have continued to choose to run into the teeth of 8- and 9-man boxes. Tennessee's play calling under Him Chaney the last few games has been highly questionable at best, but it proves that he doesn't trust Guarantano to throw the ball. Expect an athletic Arkansas defense to play very similar to Kentucky, loading the box, playing zone behind it, and daring Guarantano to push the ball for big plays. Arkansas will be looking to force turnovers on anything underneath, and linebacker Grant Morgan is one of the players that will be asked to play big against the run while trying to capitalize on a mistake from the Tennessee quarterback.

Arkansas has been very bend but don't break this season on defense. They try to avoid giving up the big play and force teams into longer drives. The Hogs are a bit thin on the defensive front, and they have given up some yards on the ground to opponents this season. The Vols will look to capitalize on this, leaning on their offensive line and pair of talented running backs to try to gash Arkansas, control the clock, and score. The Vols are certainly capable of controlling a game on the ground, but the Arkansas defense is too good for Tennessee to rely solely on the ground game to win. The Vols will have to throw the ball, and likely throw it deep, in order to win. In one-on-one matchups, Josh Palmer and Jalin Hyatt should have the advantage against Razorback corners. If Guarantano can get them the ball consistently, it could change the entire complexion of the game. That said, the Vols have an advantage on the outside, and Guarantano must utilize enough to at least keep Arkansas honest and force them to take some players out of the box for the running game. If he proves ineffective in this again, or so inconsistent in hitting those throws the Hogs don't care to give up a few big plays, the Volunteer offense could be stymied again. A key underneath weapon the Vols have under-utilized are their running backs. Gray and Chandler are both effective receivers, and have proven efficient short and mid-range passing targets for the Vols.

Unsurprisingly for a Sam Pittman team, the Razorbacks have looked good up front on offense, better than anyone expected, even with Pittman's pedigree. Arkansas has been solid in run blocking, but their pass protection has been worth noting, allowing Franks time to set up and push the ball down the field to his own talented receivers in sophomore Treylon Burks and senior DéVion Warren. Tennessee should respect Burks and Warren, but the Vols should also feel that with a healthy Alontae Taylor and Key Lawrence making his debut this week, they match up well, even without factoring in Bryce Thompson. Even with Tennessee feeling confident on the edges, their defensive backs can only cover for so long. The Vols have to get more pressure on the quarterback, and they can't allow Franks to set up for deep throws regularly. The Vols should be looking more to players like Morven Joseph, Roman Harrison, and Tyler Baron to make more of an impact in this game defensively, chiefly in getting to Franks. If Tennessee can get consistent pressure on Franks, their defensive backs have a chance to force turnovers and they can contain the Razorback offense. If Franks is given time, it could be another long day for the Vols defensive unit. 

These two teams feel like they are moving in different directions, and both teams need this win desperately. Another SEC victory would be huge for Pittman in his first season, and it would be enormous momentum for his team as they embark on the second half of their season. On the other side, there may not be another team in the country that is as desperate for a win as the Vols are this week. Coming off a bye week, against an opponent they expected to beat before the season started, the Vols need a win to get off the losing streak and build some confidence. They need to show that they spent the bye finding answers that will be effective in the second half of the season on both sides of the ball. This is one of the most important games Jeremy Pruitt has faced in his young head coaching career. It is very simply a game that he and his team have to find a way to win, and they need to do so showing long term solutions at multiple positions. Things should be hard fought and close under the lights on Saturday night.