CFP Board Approves "5+7" Model: What This Means for Utah's Playoff Hopes

The first 12-team College Football Playoff has yet to occur, yet a change has already been made to the new playoff's format.

Originally slated to include a “6+6” model, giving six automatic bids for the highest-ranked conference champions, the 12-team CFP has now decided to switch to a more equitable “5+7” model.

The new model, set forth Tuesday, Feb. 20th by the CFP Board of Managers, implies there will be five automatic bids for the highest-ranked conference champions, as opposed to six. Instead, seven spots within the 12-team CFP will be reserved for the remaining seven highest-ranked teams (who are not conference champs).

While the new format is far more equitable for teams within the Power Four conferences, it does hinder the ability of independent and Group of Five programs to make the new CFP.

The CFP’s “6+6” format was put into place before the Pac-12 conference’s untimely demise. After the Power Five was reduced to Power Four, the committee opted to not have two Group of Five conference winners get automatic bids and instead switch the sixth automatic bid to a seventh at-large bid.

“This is a very logical adjustment for the College Football Playoff based on the evolution of our conference structures since the board first adopted this new format in September 2022,” Mark Keenum, Mississippi State president and chair of the CFP Board of Managers, said in a statement. “I know this change will also be well received by student-athletes, coaches, and fans. We all will be pleased to see this new format come to life on the field this postseason.”

What does the “5+7” format mean for Utah?

Fortunately, the adjusted CFP format does not affect Utah negatively.

Utah’s path to the CFP is clear. The Utes either need to win their conference or be ranked high enough to get one of the playoff's seven at-large bids.

If Utah wins the Big 12 Championship it will earn one of the five automatic bids to the CFP. Moreover, because the Big 12 is one of the top four conferences, the Utes would receive a first-round bye in the event they won.

If Utah is unable to win the Big 12, they still have a shot at making the playoffs. The benefit of switching from a “6+6” to a “5+7” format is that there is one added at-large bid for the highest-ranked non-conference champion team.

Let’s look at a hypothetical scenario where the “5+7” CFP model was used for the 2023 season. If the model was used, two Big 12 teams would’ve made the playoffs. Texas (13-0) won the conference championship and would have received a first-round bye, while Oklahoma (10-2) was the Big 12 runner-up and No. 12 ranked team in the final CFP ranking.

If we use the 2023 season as an indicator, Utah will have to win at least 10 games if they want a chance at making next year’s CFP. While this goal might seem lofty, the Utes have been gearing up all offseason to make a run at the Big 12 title. 

If one thing is certain, it’s that the new CFP format makes the path to the playoffs painfully clear… win your conference and you’re in.