Virginia Women's Basketball Looks For Upset in ACC Opener vs. No. 3 NC State

Last year, a shorthanded Virginia team beat No. 22 NC State in JPJ, and that marked UVA's best ACC game. This year, coming in with strong depth and talent, Coach Mox’s Cavaliers aim to have more upset wins against the top of the conference. On New Year’s Eve at 6pm, Virginia will host the Wolfpack once again, who are currently ranked No. 3 in the nation.

Virginia enters the game with an 8-3 record, with the three losses coming to No. 25 Oklahoma, No. 7 LSU, and a disappointing buzzer beater loss against Wofford two weeks ago. The most recent game, however, was a resurgence as Virginia won 82-56 against Fordham, and made 10 first-half threes.

Entering the Fordham matchup, Virginia was shooting 19.2% from beyond the arc, a number that was especially damaging considering perimeter shooting is an important element of the offense. Freshman guard Kymora Johnson went 6/7 from three in the game for a career high 26 points, and seeing her find the bottom of the net was an encouraging sign. Hopefully, the team's performance from deep can continue to trend in the right direction, as efficient three point shooting would help immensely against NC State and other ACC foes.

While three-point shooting has been a struggle, Virginia remains at the top of the rankings nationally in offensive rebounds (8th with 17.4 per game) and free throw shooting (11th at 80.3%). The team is finding ways to score, but adding the perimeter shooting would elevate Coach Mox’s crew to the next level.

Looking at NC State, the Wolfpack were projected to finish eighth in the ACC, but instead the team has jumped out to a 12-0 record and is the third ranked team in the country after beating No. 2 UConn and No. 3 Colorado. Clearly, the preseason polls underestimated the early potential of this team, and we will see if the Wolfpack can continue this dominance in conference play.

ESPN ranks NC State players Saniya Rivers and Aziaha James as the 22nd and 24th best players in women’s basketball. Rivers scored 33 points against UConn and is an athlete that leads the team as a point guard. James is the team’s leading scorer with 16.3 points per game, and both Rivers and James are thriving in their new opportunities. While Rivers has missed the last two games with an injury, freshman Zoe Brooks stepped up as point guard and dished out 11 assists against ODU, showing the depth of Wes Moore’s team. In fact, Brooks is ranked as the ninth most impactful freshman on another ESPN ranking, and she averages 4.5 assists per game. We will have to monitor the status of Saniya Rivers as game day approaches, but the long break between games gives her a better shot of returning to her starting gig.

An interesting matchup in this game will be the battle of the boards, given that both teams historically have outrebounded their opponents. NC State is 13th in rebound margin and fourth in defensive rebounds, while Virginia is 29th in rebound margin and eighth in offensive rebounds. If one team can control the glass, that team will likely come away with the win.

Additionally, NC State is ranked sixth in field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to just 32.3% from the field. Virginia will need to be much more efficient than this if the team hopes to complete the upset.

The onset of ACC play is exciting for the Hoos, and playing the highest ranked conference foe first is definitely a trial by fire. Overall, this should be a great opportunity to see how Virginia stacks up against one of the hottest teams in college basketball, and we will continue to see how the Cavaliers fare in this difficult conference. 

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