NFL Betting Trends Ahead of the 2023-24 Football Season

Week 1 of the NFL season is just five days away now with the upstart Detroit Lions visiting Arrowhead Stadium to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night at 8:20 PM ET. The opening week of football signals a heavy betting handle, but if you don’t want to get lost in the shuffle of ill-advised plays that result in a net deficit, check out our game-by-game NFL betting trends for all 16 matchups.

Some trends are coincidental and not predictive, but others can be quite indicative and helpful. To bolster your opening NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, read through these trends and decide which ones you can leverage into a formidable play.

DETROIT LIONS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS PREDICTION: Over 54 total points (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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NFL Betting Trends & Stats for Week 1's Games

Lions vs. Chiefs

The best bet from our NFL betting trends comes from the opening game of the season. The Chiefs are a safe pick to win the game, but at money line odds shorter than -300, there is virtually no value in taking the Chiefs, who have won eight of their last nine season openers. The trend we do like is the over on points.

Despite a high total of 54 and a Lions defense that should be mightily improved, we expect fireworks on opening night between two loaded offenses. Each of the Lions’ past 12 openers have gone over, so we like lucky number 13 to come through and deliver the most Thursday night points of the season before short weeks strike down Thursday outputs.

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

If you are looking to bet on Texans vs. Ravens, all signs point to the Ravens and the under. Aside from the Ravens’ lofty expectations and the Texans in a state of rebuilding, the Ravens have covered the spread in six of their last seven openers. At -10 with high expectations and a prepared nature, we like them to once again cover in a matchup that has seen the home team win seven of the last eight.

The Ravens’ last seven home games have gone under the point total as well. Look for Demeco Ryans to stamp his defensive pedigree to limit the Ravens just enough to keep this point total under 43.5. We expect minimal production from the Texans’ offense against a ferocious Baltimore defense.

Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints

A point total of 41 still might not be enough for these two teams to surpass. Each of the Saints’ last six games have gone under while the Titans wrapped 2022 on a seven-game losing streak due to a lackluster offense. With Derek Carr in a new system and Ryan Tannehill playing his first meaningful game post-injury, look to a low-scoring contest in NOLA.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The spread is 2.5 and the total is set at 40.5 The 49ers have Super Bowl ambitions while the Steelers look to survive a gauntlet of an AFC North and build off a strong finish to last season with a playoff berth. In a battle between Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt, look for the 49ers to eke out a tight win by a field goal and cover -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings) in a low-scoring bruiser. This would make 10 straight 49ers openers that have gone under, as well as covering the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

The battle for Ohio should be fun this season as the Bengals look to continue their run at the top of the AFC, while the Browns look to re-tool and steal the Bengals’ crown in the AFC North. While our experts like the Browns to have a strong season and make as good a push as anyone, the Bengals could very well thwart or even just delay Celveland’s hype out of the gate with a road victory. Expect a high-scoring affair as eight of the Browns’ last nine home openers have gone over the point total. With Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson featured at quarterback, never mind nice defenses, this could be a thrilling shootout.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Buccaneers are in limbo trending down while the Vikings are in limbo trying to hold on to playoff hopes. At home, the Vikings feel like the side to back considering they have won 15 of their last 16 as favorites while the Bucs have failed to cover the spread in 14 of 16. If you want a side on the point total, the Vikings’ last eight have gone over. The Bucs still have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and an emerging Rachaad White at RB, so more than 47.5 points scored could be the play.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

The NFL betting trends point to the Jaguars and the over. The Colts have failed to cover the spread in eight straight Week 1 contests and are riding a seven-game losing streak entering this opener. The over has also hit in five of the Colts’ last six games. The Jaguars are hungry to dominate the AFC South and the Colts are feeling out a rookie QB and a new coaching staff.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders

The NFL betting trends for this unassuming matchup fit the billing. A point total set at 38 might not be supplanted when the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals visit a Commanders team looking to break out. The Cardinals have covered their last four openers, but may not a fifth time given their optics. The Cardinals enter on a seven-game losing streak. The one trend that does have a bearing on this matchup is the Cardinals’ five straight road openers going under the point total.

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Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

NFL betting trends point to the Panthers on the road. The Falcons have lost five straight season openers and the Panthers have covered the spread in six of their last seven against fellow NFC opponents. For the point total, five of the Falcons’ last six games have gone under. The Falcons are favored by 3.5 (-110 on both sides) and the point total is set at 39.5 (-110 on both sides) on DraftKings. We expect a low-scoring affair here and like the under 39.5 points (-110 at DraftKings).

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

This should be an exciting season opener with plenty of points. Seven of the last eight Dolphins’ road games have gone over on the point total, and we like over 50.5 points here (-110 at DraftKings). The Chargers have the edge on a side according to NFL betting trends. The Bolts have covered six of their last seven September spreads against the AFC and have won four straight home openers.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Finishing out last year, the Rams couldn’t buy a win or a cover and the Seahawks took part in a series of games that went under on the point total. With a total of 46 at home, we like another Seahawks game to go under (-110 at DraftKings).

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

Expectations are changing in Denver with Sean Payton at the helm, but both the Raiders and Broncos remain question marks for the upcoming season. What isn’t a question mark is the Raiders’ recent, consistent success as a side against Denver. Considering the Raiders have won six straight in this matchup and have covered 10 of the last 11, we like the Raiders +4 at -110 or on the +160 money line at DraftKings. The NFL betting trends pertaining to this matchup are some of the most telling and indicative we have covered on the slate thus far.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

In this rivalry, the NFL betting trends on a side can be misleading. Aaron Rodgers was notorious in Chicago for owning this matchup. The Packers have covered eight in a row. But without Rodgers, this rivalry experiences a clean slate. One trend, however, has merit. Each of the Bears’ last six home openers have gone under the point total. With two young quarterbacks on rosters trying to find an identity, we will back the under 43 points (-110 at DraftKings).

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots

This matchup showcases more useful NFL betting trends to help us make a confident play. The Patriots are enduring a stretch going back to last season where they have failed to cover four of their last five spreads. Meanwhile, the Eagles have won seven of their last eight road games. Given the Eagles’ expectations this year, they are an obvious choice in Week 1. But where our best bet is in regards to NFL betting trends is on the point total under. Seven of the Patriots’ last eight season openers have gone under the point total. Defense is Belichick’s calling card, and with OC Shane Steichen now leading the Colts, the Eagles’ offense may not be at its best in Week 1.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Yet another case of promising NFL betting trends strikes in this Week 1 primetime rivalry. Only 3-point favorites at -118 on DraftKings, the Cowboys have won 11 of their last 12 against the Giants. If the Cowboys’ spread wasn’t already attractive enough, consider the fact the Giants have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 home openers. If you can’t get behind the Cowboys -3 (-118 at DraftKings), maybe under 46.5 points will grab your attention. Each of the Giants’ last nine home openers have gone under the point total, and the Cowboys have a new OC and play-caller in head coach Mike McCarthy.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

The Jets’ complete lack of success against NFC East opponents and in the month of September is hard to gauge in 2023 given the roster overhaul they have undergone, but one NFL betting trend does have something to say in this matchup. Seven of the Bill’s last eight road games have surprisingly gone under. With a point total set at 46 (-110 on both sides on DraftKings), you could snag the under and fade the two high-profile QBs in this matchup.

What Are NFL Betting Trends & How Can They Help You?

By now, you should have a good sense of which NFL betting trends are impactful and which can be tossed to the side. We sprinkled our best bets throughout the brief breakdowns attached to all 16 Week 1 duels. Some of these carry over from last year, some have to do with Week 1 stats over the last several years and some are matchup based. NFL betting trends are important to consider because, from a betting perspective, they can mean the difference in the spread, a market that doesn’t necessarily care which team is better, but how much better they are.

If you are interested in any of our NFL betting trends outlined in this article, locate the matchup you want to wager on and find where the trends provide an edge. DraftKings is giving all new users who sign up here $200 in bonus bets. Find the trend you like and put $5 down on it. No matter what, $200 in bonus bets will be yours.

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