NFL Division Standings Predictions 2023-24: Likely First to Worst Teams

Author:
Mark Lammey, Spotlight Sports
Jul 27, 2023 4:02 PM EDT

Don’t look now, but the 2023-24 NFL season is now right around the corner with teams having reported to training camp. The first preseason games will be here in the blink of an eye, so we’re here to help make sure you’re locked into all the available futures betting markets. Our experts provided their Super Bowl 58 pick in this article earlier in the week, and now we have their NFL division standings predictions and the details for how to use our best bet to claim a $1,250 Caesars Sportsbook sign-up bonus.

NFL DIVISION STANDINGS PREDICTIONS: Jaguars to Miss the Playoffs (+175), Vikings to Miss the Playoffs (-140) & Buccaneers Under 6.5 Wins (-140 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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NFL Division Standings Predictions: Most Likely First to Worst Teams

When it comes to making NFL division standings predictions, it’s just like it sounds. We’re predicting teams that will go from first place in their division to last. Keep in mind that this is an approach that provides value rather than likelihood of occurring.

Falling off from being the best to the worst is quite a significant drop-off that generally requires a team deciding to completely rebuild from one season to the next. We don’t currently have anything that severe, but we’ve still found great spots to target based on other factors, such as the breakdown of the other teams in the division. So, let’s get into which teams we’ve targeted with our NFL division standings predictions.

Picks & Best Bets

Now that we’ve provided a brief overview of how NFL division standings predictions work, let’s get into the full analysis for each of our best bets.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The AFC South has been far from a juggernaut in recent years, which was also on display just last season. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags were able to win the division, but it certainly wasn’t pretty.

They still finished just 9-8 in 2022-23, and they still aren’t exactly a star-studded roster. Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne are still extremely young, making their backfield difficult to rely on. They also don’t have one of those superstar WRs that so many teams are building their offense around.

Let’s also not forget that the Jags finished in last place for four straight seasons prior to last year. That includes going 1-15 in 2020-21 and 3-14 in 2021-22. The Indianapolis Colts have every opportunity to bounce back after drafting QB Anthony Richardson, the Tennessee Titans have arguably the most dominant RB in the NFL in Derrick Henry and the Houston Texans had two of the top three picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.

It may still be one of the weaker divisions this season, but the Jaguars are the first target of our NFL division standings predictions.

Minnesota Vikings

One division that could see a complete shift in the balance of power in the 2023-24 season is the NFC North. Now that QB Aaron Rodgers is no longer leading the Green Bay Packers, it’s the Detroit Lions as the favorites to win the division.

That’s even after the Vikings went 13-4 last season, which helps support why we’re targeting Minnesota with our NFL Division Standings predictions. First and foremost, it is nearly impossible for QB Kirk Cousins and the Vikes to replicate the type of miraculous wins they posted last year.

Of Minnesota’s 13 wins, 11 of them came by just a single possession. Many of those were also wins that came within the final minutes in extremely unlikely circumstances. Their dream season also came to an end in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, losing to a team that most didn’t even expect to make the postseason - the New York Giants.

While they do have the reigning 2022 Offensive Player of the Year in Justin Jefferson, their defense remains one of the worst in the league. Allowing 4,818 passing yards (second-most) is not a good sign in today’s pass-happy NFL. Keeping that in mind, the Vikings are another team involved in our best NFL division standings predictions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Finally, wrapping up our NFL division standings predictions is a team in another division that is simply overall weak. Like the AFC South, the NFC South was far from impressive last season. In fact, the entire division finished under .500, including the Buccaneers at 8-9.

That means the division is wide open, and the Bucs lost arguably the best player in NFL history with QB Tom Brady retiring. Prior to him leaving the New England Patriots and joining the Bucs, Tampa had been one of the worst franchises in the league, including a 5-11 record in 2018-19 to put them in last place in the NFC South.

There could be a changing of the guard with the New Orleans Saints looking to return to glory by acquiring former Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr. The Carolina Panthers were also able to snag their potential franchise QB with the #1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft by selecting Bryce Young out of Alabama.

Similarly, the Atlanta Falcons were able to grab one of the best RB prospects in quite some time by picking Texas’ Bijan Robinson with the #8 overall pick. That does mean that the NFC South is a young division, but losing Brady cannot be understated. Therefore, the Bucs round out our NFL division standings predictions.

Betting Odds for the Jaguars, Vikings & Buccaneers to go From First to Worst Provided by Caesars Sportsbook

While there’s no exact betting market for a team to go from first to worst, we’ve still provided you with the best way to target our NFL division standings predictions at Caesars Sportsbook.

For the Jags, to miss the playoffs has great +175 odds, which means a $100 bet profits $175 if they aren’t able to make the postseason. We’d suggest the same approach for the Vikings, as they have a -140 price to miss the playoffs. So, a $140 bet profits $100 as long as they don’t make the postseason.

In terms of the Bucs portion of our NFL division standings predictions, they have very expensive -500 odds to miss the playoffs. Therefore, we’d suggest attacking Tampa’s win total, which is set at 6.5 wins. We’d go under 6.5 wins, which has -140 odds at Caesars Sportsbook, meaning a $140 wager profits $100 as long as they end the season with six or fewer wins.

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Recent NFL Teams That Have Gone From First to Worst

Having such a significant downfall to go from first to worst isn’t the most common, but it has happened. Below are a few of the most recent instances:

Seattle Seahawks: 2020-21 to 2021-22
Philadelphia Eagles: 2019-20 to 2020-21
San Francisco 49ers: 2019-20 to 2020-21
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2017-18 to 2018-19

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