MLB Expert Picks for Today, 7/16: Best Bets, Predictions, Props & Odds
The first weekend of post-All-Star break baseball games have been quite a delight, and we’ll hopefully see some more solid matchups on this mid-July Sunday. We’ll go over a few different wagers we’re looking at with our MLB picks today below, and specify which ones we feel most confident about. Not only will we discuss our favorite matchup predictions, but we also have a couple player props to give out as well.
Our predictions below will all be given with odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, where new members can earn a first-bet offer of $1,250 among other rewards. We also have even more MLB picks today for the other matchups not detailed in this article.
EXPERT MLB PREDICTIONS FOR TODAY, 7/16: Diamondbacks Money Line (+135) & Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 RBI (+168 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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MLB Best Bets & Expert Predictions for Today, 7/16: Value in Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays & Red Sox vs. Cubs Matchups
Leading off our MLB picks today will be one of the league’s teams out west in Arizona.
This is due to the development of Dbacks starter Tommy Henry. His first month didn’t start out too hot, but he’s now allowed just two runs or fewer in his last four starts. He actually only surrendered four runs total during that timespan, so whatever he’s done in terms of limiting walks and extra-base hits has clearly been working.
On the other side, Toronto boasts a more-than-capable batting lineup, but the same cannot be said for their pitching rotation. Aside from Kevin Gauusman and Chriss Bassitt, the team has struggled to consistently get quality pitching from their starters. They’ll trot out Yusei Kikuchi today, who’s 4.24 ERA isn’t terrible, but his advanced metrics tell a different story. Kikuchi allows a hard-hit rate of 44% along with a 10.1% barrel rate, signifying that he gets hit rather hard when the opposition makes contact.
Our MLB picks today also focus on the Cubs, although we don’t prefer this pick over Arizona. Still, Chicago should be able to edge the Red Sox today in what looks to be a solid pitching duel. The Cubs will ultimately have the better option on the mound as Justin Steele should produce better numbers than Kutter Crawford. Crawford has just a 5.45 ERA and 1.41 WHIP as a starter since joining the rotation at the start of June.
Steele, meanwhile, sports a 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP and has only given up more than three runs in two of his 16 total starts this season. In fact, he’s allowed just one or less in nine of those starts. Steele now enters this game being extremely well-rested having not pitched since July 5, so look for him to guide his squad to victory at home today.
We like both of these plays for today, but our top option is the Diamondbacks money line (+135) as it provides much more value than the Cubs money line (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook. Stick with us as we’re about to also lay out two separate player props we like from today’s slate.
MLB Player Prop Picks for Today, 7/16 Including Kerry Carpenter & Mike Moustakas
Shifting our focus from matchup predictions, let’s start our MLB picks today regarding player props with a red-hot slugger from Detroit. Kerry Carpenter is quietly putting together a rather solid season and he’s started this second half as strong as can be. He’s got three home runs in two games and also has at least one RBI in five of his last eight outings, including three of his last four. In those same eight appearances, Carpenter has 11 RBI total. We think he’ll be able to continue his hot streak and plate another run across today.
Elsewhere, we also think there’s value in veteran infielder Mike Moustakas to get a hit. It’s been a couple seasons since Mous has provided a consistent bat in the lineup, but he appears to be figuring things out recently. He’s got at least one hit in four straight games and seven hits total in his last seven games. He’ll be facing Christian Javier of the Astros today, who has now allowed 18 earned runs on 21 hits in his last three outings (10.2 total innings pitched).
Just like our matchup predictions above, we also prefer one of the player prop picks more than the other, that being Carpenter over 0.5 RBI (+168 at Caesars Sportsbook). That’s mainly because Moustakas over 0.5 hits doesn’t provide as much juice at just -158 betting odds, but we’d still throw down a wager on both of these props.
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Latest MLB Odds & Betting Lines for Today, 7/16 Provided by Caesars
Here are the latest betting odds at Caesars Sportsbook associated with the MLB picks today that we laid out above:
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
- Boston Red Sox (+122) vs. Chicago Cubs (-145)
- Kerry Carpenter RBI: Over 0.5 (+168) vs. Under 0.5 (-258)
- Mike Moustakas Hits: Over 0.5 (-158) vs. Under 0.5 (+108)
MLB Draft Tracker: Notable 2023 Draft Picks
The MLB Draft for 2023 is now officially over, so who were the top five picks? You can see those results below:
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes (P) - LSU
- Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews (OF) - LSU
- Detroit Tigers: Max Clark (OF) - Franklin Community HS
- Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford (OF) - Florida
- Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins (OF) - South Brunswick HS
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