UFC 301 Card: Predictions for Pantoja vs. Erceg, Aldo vs. Martinez

(Image via Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)

UFC 301 takes place this Saturday night, and Sports Illustrated's MMA Knockout staff has some predictions.

Headlining the Saturday night pay-per-view event will be a UFC Flyweight Championship match between titleholder Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg. The co-main event will see UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo return to MMA for a showdown with rising bantamweight Jonathan Martinez.

Also on tap for the UFC 301 card will be a light heavyweight encounter between Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino. There will also be two middleweight fights on the main card, as Michel Pereira collides with Ihor Potieria, and Paul Craig shares the Octagon with Caio Borralho. The action goes down inside the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Without further delay, let's get into our UFC 301 predictions.

READ MORE: UFC 301 FULL ADVANCED PRELIM PREDICTIONS & BREAKDOWNS

UFC 301 Predictions: Pantoja vs. Erceg

Fernando Quiles Jr: It's no secret that Pantoja is as durable as they come. Erceg scored a big knockout win over Matt Schnell back in March, but I don't see the 125-pound champion getting finished in that fashion. I do think Erceg is tough and will hang in there with Pantoja until the final horn, but it won't result in a new champion. (Pick: Pantoja)

Mathew Riddle: I like Erceg's chances, but stylistically I believe Pantoja's blitz in, take the back and choke them out style is something that works more than not. I'm worried he'll get chinned but he's proven to have a granite chin. (Pick: Pantoja)

Drew Beaupré: The fact that Erceg only has three UFC fights under his belt and was an unexpected choice for the next flyweight title shot makes me feel like this matchup has all the makings of an upset. Pantoja has proven himself against a higher level of competition and has been fighting at his best during this current run, but I’m going to pick “AstroBoy” to get the job done in Brazil. (Pick: Erceg)

Zain Bando: This was the hand the UFC was dealt given that Alex Pereira headlined against Jamahal Hill last month in Las Vegas, so Alexandre Pantoja got his well-earned headlining spot.

On paper, this is a great fight, but despite Erceg being 12-1 and unblemished through three UFC outings thus far, he’ll have to KO Pantoja early or hope for a miracle on the judges’ scorecards. I see neither happening. Pantoja is the hometown favorite with tremendous upside, having not lost since July 2020 and beating some of the best contenders and former champions the division has to offer, including long-time contender Brandon Royval and ex-champion, Brandon Moreno. Factoring in everything above, expect a dominant performance from Pantoja the entire fight and then, it’s likely a wide-open division from there. (Pick: Pantoja)

Christopher De Santiago: I’ve always liked a good underdog story and we have that here with Western Australian wildcard Steve Erceg. He enters his first title fight within a year of signing with the UFC. While he is green compared to the champion Alexandre Pantoja (27-5), his overall skills make up for his lack of championship-level experience. Erceg is great anywhere the fight goes, just like Pantoja, but I feel the five rounds should favor the first-ever title challenger as Pantoja has noticeably faded in rounds 4 and 5 before, getting to the distance on heart and determination alone. I expect Erceg to capitalize on this in the championship rounds, avoid the champ’s clinch game to win by a late TKO just like Rocky Balboa did against Apollo Creed in Rocky II. If you know, you know. (Pick: Erceg)

Consensus: 3-2, Alexandre Pantoja

UFC 301 Predictions: Martinez vs. Aldo

Fernando Quiles Jr: I can't dismiss Aldo's chances in this fight, but at the age of 37 and not having an MMA bout in almost two years picking him to win this fight gives me pause. I don't believe his two boxing matches in 2023 will shake off the rust inside the Octagon because the timing and pace are far different between the sports. Martinez has hit his stride, riding a six-fight winning streak. Could Aldo's experience win out? Absolutely, but I'm taking Martinez via decision. (Pick: Martinez)

Mathew Riddle: I'm definitely not counting Aldo out, I just really like Martinez as a next-generation bantamweight. Martinez has this ability to take punches on the guard and return fire with kicks and combinations, so I don't see him biting on Aldo's feints and eating body shots or leg kicks so much. This, paired with his forward pressure and savage kicks, I think Martinez could edge out a decision. (Pick: Martinez)

Drew Beaupré: Combat sports fans know all too well that fighter retirements rarely last, but even though Aldo spent last year boxing it’s still a bit of a surprise to see how quickly he decided to return to the Octagon. The UFC Hall of Famer was still fighting at a high level when he decided to walk away, and while Martinez is going to provide a huge challenge I’ll pick Aldo to win an entertaining striking battle and send the crowd into an absolute frenzy. (Pick: Aldo)

Zain Bando: The old saying about ring rust becoming a negative could hold true for José Aldo, but I just don’t see it. Since leaving the UFC a few years ago, Aldo has remained active on the boxing front and has always kept the door open on a return to MMA. Contrary to popular belief, this is the perfect fight for Aldo to regain his confidence. Martinez has won six in a row, including against a non-primed Cub Swanson, which is all too familiar to Aldo. Aldo is still better everywhere despite him no longer fighting at his natural weight, which may be a cause of concern for those who are picking him. Nevertheless, this should be a slugfest and Aldo being back in Rio should deliver fireworks, hence the early KO bold pick. (Pick: Aldo)

Christopher De Santiago: It’s old school vs. new school as Jose Aldo returns for what I think will be a clinical performance against a much younger contender. Styles makes fights and for Aldo, facing Jonathan Martinez is a striker’s delight. Martinez has a similar arsenal as the Brazilian, who’s also known for his leg kicks. Martinez should be faster than the 37 year-old Aldo, but I think Aldo will be a tiny step ahead of him with his striking tactics, especially now that he’s focused more on boxing. However, this could come back to bite him as leg kicks are super effective on boxers. We’ll see if Aldo’s switch back to MMA will stop them. Aldo by decision. (Pick: Aldo)

Consensus: 3-2, Jose Aldo

UFC 301 Predictions: Smith vs. Petrino

Fernando Quiles Jr: It's easy to see why the UFC booked this fight. Petrino is an undefeated prospect who would elevate his career with a win over the 35-year-old Smith. I believe "Lionheart's" best days are well behind him and I can see him getting picked a part on the outside. Could Smith pull off the upset? We've seen stranger things happen, but I think the UFC brass gets what they want here. (Pick: Petrino)

Mathew Riddle: I fully expect Petrino to work from a distance and chop at Smith's legs for a majority of this fight. Smith doesn't have the physicality to impose his will against a unit like Petrino, and his activity in his last few fights was damning to say the least. (Pick: Petrino)

Drew Beaupré: We’ve seen Smith defy the odds and humble rising fighters on more than one occasion, but his recent fights indicate that time and mileage might finally be catching up with him. I’d like to see “Lionheart” try to get Petrino to the mat and potentially wear him out as the fight goes on, but it’s hard to forget that last knockout loss he suffered against Khalil Rountree when he’s facing another heavy handed fighter on Saturday night. (Pick: Petrino)

Zain Bando: It’s not the best on paper nor is it the worst, but it will likely only end in one of two ways: a stoppage. Vitor Petrino has a lot of upside as one of the few unbeaten prospects on the roster at the moment, but his current body of work is nothing to be mind-blown over. Tyson Pedro and Anton Turkalj recently departed the UFC, though for two entirely different reasons. The argument could be made that his best win is against Modestas Bukauskas thus far in the UFC, but even that’s a stretch. Smith, despite having his struggles since his UFC 235 loss to current heavyweight champion Jon Jones, has still attempted to remain competitive, though at times, it’s a challenge. Is it maybe Smith’s retirement fight given he has lost three of his last four, his lone win coming against Ryan Spann? It’s debatable. However, the fight will showcase a lot of where Smith, who is 37-19 in MMA, is at. Therefore, the conservative pick seems like the safest on the card. (Pick: Smith)

Christopher De Santiago: I like what I’ve been seeing from Vitor Petrino lately. The undefeated fighter is building quite the resume inside the UFC Octagon with notable wins over Tyson Pedro, Modestas Buskauskas and Marcin Prachnio, who all could’ve been right outside the top 15 gate. As for Smith, I don’t buy into the narrative that he has declined drastically. I think the image of that is just a result of facing high-level competition as he’s done time and time again. Unfortunately, I think Petrino belongs with the top of the food chain despite him not having a number next to his name. I predict Petrino will be tested but I think he’ll end up getting his hand raised by decision. (Pick: Petrino)

Consensus: 4-1, Victor Petrino

UFC 301 Predictions: Pereira vs. Potieria

Fernando Quiles Jr: Pereira's wild style is exciting to watch, but he also brings an element of unpredictability to his fights. When Potieria loses, he's usually finished, and I see Pereira scoring a TKO victory here to give the Brazilian fans plenty to cheer about. (Pick: Pereira)

Mathew Riddle: Don't get me wrong, Potieria is a live dog here but again I think it's a matter of strength. These middleweights don't expect 'Demolidor's' aggression straight out the gate and he is insanely strong and durable - and only getting better! (Pick: Pereira)

Drew Beaupré: Pereira’s original matchup with Makhmud Muradov was already somewhat strange given the win streak that “Demolidor” is currently on, and a short-notice meeting with Potieira also seemingly does little to establish himself as a contender at middleweight. I’ll be curious to see what Pereira’s approach is after he surprised fans with an early takedown in his last fight, and if he gets the job done here then a crack at the middleweight rankings should be next. (Pick: Pereira)

Zain Bando: Arguably the most underrated fight on the main card portion of UFC 301 is the all-action Michel Pereira against the equally dangerous Ihor Potieria, who has been up-and-down as of late, winning just two of his last three since a 15-fight unbeaten streak was snapped in July 2022 by Nicolae Negumereanu. Meanwhile, Pereira has been on a roll as of late despite having 11 losses overall, going 8-2 during his UFC run. After a string of canceled fights a few years back, his last two wins have been vintage Pereira, which includes a rear-naked-choke win against the ultra-durable Michał Oleksiejczuk. If Potieria can avoid getting inside the closed distance and clinch with Pereira, the fight will get interesting. But, something tells me, another highlight-reel finish from Pereira is in the works. (Pick: Pereira)

Christopher De Santiago: Michel Pereira’s power should work wonders for him against the striking style of Ihor Potieira. Keeping this simple, Pereira by knockout in round 2.
(Pick: Pereira)

Consensus: 5-0, Michel Pereira

UFC 301 Predictions: Craig vs. Borralho

Fernando Quiles Jr: One minute, Paul Craig is pulling off crazy submissions over the likes of Jamahal Hill and Magomed Ankalaev, the next he's getting outclassed on the ground. He has perhaps the most confusing resume in all of MMA. I'll take Caio Borralho via submission. (Pick: Borralho)

Mathew Riddle: I'm not high on either of these fighters, but I think Craig comes off worse. His ability to throw up submissions is phenomenal, but he has glaring holes in practically every other area of the fight. Borralho specializes in control and dominance, and that's what I see him doing Saturday night. (Pick: Borralho)

Drew Beaupré: This is one of the most intriguing fights on the card from a stylistic standpoint, and it’s also well-matched based on where both men sit in the middleweight rankings. Borralho has been on a tear since he debuted in the UFC, and given that Craig’s best path to victory is usually through his grappling I have to favor the Brazilian to stifle any submission attempts and extend his unbeaten record in the promotion. (Pick: Borralho)

Zain Bando: Opening the main card from Brazil is a pair of well-rounded middleweights in Paul Craig and Caio Borralho. This is not your typical striker vs. grappler matchup, though. Borralho has proven that he can finish his opponents on the feet, winning four of his 15 fights by KO/TKO. But ultimately, whoever can take control on the mat first will likely get the job done. And simply put, Craig is the better ground specialist and should be able to find an opening early, if not midway through the fight, to get an armbar, RNC or triangle choke win. (Pick: Craig)

Christopher De Santiago: Paul Craig and Caio Borralho is sure to hit the ground and I believe Borralho should be able to outlast the Scottish fighter to see the distance and take home a decision victory, although it won’t be easy.
(Pick: Borralho)

Consensus: 4-1, Caio Barralho

MMA Knockout Staff 2024 Records

• Fernando Quiles Jr: 14-6
• Mathew Riddle: 9-6
• Drew Beaupré: 14-6
• Zain Bando: 10-10
• Christopher De Santiago: 8-2