Fantasy football 2014 draft prep: Kansas City Chiefs team preview

The Chiefs are the reason NFL fans have hope every summer that their bad team will be able to turn it around and become one of the best in the NFL.

Let’s go back to 2012, when the Kansas City Chiefs finished the season as the worst team in the NFL, earning the top overall draft pick in in 2013. Coming off a season-ending injury the previous year, Jamaal Charles put up a career-high 1,508 rushing yards, but all he heard about was Adrian Peterson’s miraculous recovery from the same injury and subsequent march to the mythic 2,000-yard mark. Quarterback Matt Cassel was finishing his contract in Kansas City and was replaced late in the year by Brady Quinn. It was a horrible year for the Chiefs, and things looked bad for a while.

That offseason, Andy Reid was fired by the Eagles and joined new general manager John Dorsey in Kansas City, and the Chiefs' overhaul began. They traded for quarterback Alex Smith, who had been unseated by Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, and drafted offensive lineman Eric Fisher with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

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Reid installed the West Coast offense that had helped many of his quarterbacks in Philadelphia turn into excellent fantasy players. The offensive line helped Charles lead the NFL in total touchdowns (19) and finish third in the NFL with 1,287 rushing yards. The Chiefs finished 11-5 and lost a wild-card weekend heartbreaker to the Colts.

The NFL looks at the Chiefs in a whole new light after a remarkable turnaround last year, but fantasy owners still don’t see as much change in Kansas City. Sure, Charles is awesome -- but he was awesome when they were horrible. We like him as the top overall draft pick, but we’re also not excited about many of the other Chiefs from a fantasy perspective.

Currently, only four Chiefs are getting picked in most fantasy leagues: Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Knile Davis and the Chiefs defense/special teams.

Charles enters his second year in Reid’s offense, and he’ll be 27 years old for much of the 2014 season. He has plenty of gas left in the tank after being the main running back at Texas for one season then needing a couple years in the NFL to grab hold of the starting gig in Kansas City. He has just 1,043 career rushing attempts, compared to fellow 2008 NFL draft classmate Matt Forte’s 1,551.

Charles also became a much bigger part of the passing game in 2013, which is part of why we love him as the top overall pick. His offensive line took a beating this offseason, losing three starters, which is a good argument to draft LeSean McCoy instead. While the offensive line is young, its outlook is promising.

The Chiefs won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year, but it’s very possible some Kansas City players sneak up on fantasy owners. Some possibilities include Alex Smith, who is coming off a career year and finished as a top-15 quarterback in spite of his reliance on short passes. Donnie Avery becomes more valuable with Dexter McCluster moving to Tennessee, and backup running back Knile Davis will see more touches in 2014.

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Knile Davis - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Davis is about as important a handcuff as you’ll find in the league. Davis would impact fantasy standings if Jamaal Charles goes down at any point. Davis picked up 81 yards and two TDs on 27 carries when Charles was resting Week 17 last season.

Terrance West - RB, Cleveland Browns

The rookie will need to beat out veteran Ben Tate for touches, but his upside is enormous. Browns running back coach Wilbert Montgomery recently told reporters, ''He has that Ricky Watters, Walter Payton, lure-you-to-sleep-on-the-sideline move that I can accelerate or play like I’m going to accelerate and come back inside. Those are traits I haven’t seen in a while.''

Dri Archer - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s possible that the undersized third-round pick is restricted to kick return duty in his rookie year. It’s also possible that Archer emerges as a dynamic RB/WR who could score anytime he touches the ball.

Lache Seastrunk - RB, Washington Redskins

The Baylor product is behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu on the depth chart and has developed a reputation for having awful hands. He actually dropped 10 balls and only caught nine during his two years in college. That said, Seastrunk’s running ability would make him a fantasy asset if Morris goes down with an injury.

Ka’Deem Carey - RB, Chicago Bears

Carey is an all-around running back who is capable of stepping in and producing for fantasy owners if Matt Forte gets hurt. He’s the type of rookie who would be a hot commodity if he were drafted by a team without an elite running back.

Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons

There is a legitimate chance that Freeman will eventually start over Steven Jackson; the rookie's average draft position will skyrocket with a dominant preseason. The former FSU back should see the field a lot if he can handle pass protection.

Christine Michael - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Michael is an instant stud if Marshawn Lynch goes down. Either way, the Seahawks have hinted at a committee approach and Lynch’s brief holdout may not have helped matters for the veteran running back. Michael has the skill set to provide RB1 numbers if he receives enough carries.

Carlos Hyde - RB, San Francisco 49ers

Anyone who saw Carlos Hyde at Ohio State knew he wouldn’t get buried in San Francisco, even with a crowded backfield. He’s arguably the most talented rookie RB and is one Frank Gore injury away from fantasy stardom.

Tre Mason - RB, St. Louis Rams

Many fantasy owners are high on Zac Stacy entering the season. But ask anyone who drafted Daryl Richardson in 2013 if Jeff Fisher is afraid to make a change at running back. The dynamic rookie Tre Mason is too talented to ride the pine forever and he’d turn into a nice fantasy option if given carries.

Chris Polk - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Even with Darren Sproles in town, Polk would hold a ton of fantasy value if LeSean McCoy were to miss time at any point. Chip Kelly’s offense turns RBs into fantasy stars and Polk is the clear-cut backup to McCoy.

Charles Sims - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The rookie from West Virginia is expected to be an immediate handcuff to Doug Martin for fantasy purposes. Smith should contribute in passing situations early, but could steal carries from Martin as the season progresses.

Markus Wheaton - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Wheaton is expected to inherit a starting gig with Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders gone. The sophomore from Oregon State has big-play ability and could easily emerge as a must-start fantasy option on a weekly basis.

Marqise Lee - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lee is a candidate to lead the Jaguars in receptions as a rookie, but his competition isn’t exactly elite. He should be able to rack up catches and yards with Jacksonville expected to be playing from behind more often than not.

Kenny Stills - WR, New Orleans Saints

Stills has a ton of breakout potential coming off a rookie season in which he posted 641 yards on 32 catches with five TDs. He’s a big-play threat on ever possession and should easily surpass the 46 targets he received last season. He might only need 50 catches to score double-digit TDs.

Kelvin Benjamin - WR, Carolina Panthers

The 6-foot-5, 240-pound, No. 28 overall pick is a perfect red-zone target and he could help the Panthers win games immediately. For fantasy purposes, he’s merely a WR3 or a WR4 until he proves he can be more than just a TD-dependent gamble on a weekly basis.

Tavon Austin - WR, St. Louis Rams

As a rookie in 2013, Austin only caught 40 passes for 418 yards and never really found a true role. He’s admitted that the adjustment from college to the NFL took a toll on him and he continuously dropped passes early in the season. If things click in his second year, Austin has the skillset to be a star.

Justin Hunter - WR, Tennessee Titans

The second-year receiver showed signs of his high ceiling last season with a few big games down the stretch. Hunter has the tools to develop into a WR1 in his prime and should play a prominent role on young Titans’ offense.

Jordan Matthews - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson’s departure opens the door for Matthews to step up. The 2014 season could turn into a perfect storm for Matthews to succeed with Jeremy Maclin coming off a torn ACL and Riley Cooper coming off a career season.

Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit Lions

The Lions turned heads when they selected Ebron No. 10 overall in May’s Draft. It might take a season or two for the UNC product to reach his potential, but Ebron is an elite fantasy TE in the making. He’s been compared to Jimmy Graham and has the skillset to live up to his lofty expectations.

Ladarius Green - TE, San Diego Chargers

The 6-6, 237-pound Green is an obvious red-zone target and has the tools to be an impact fantasy option if he receives ample targets. Antonio Gates, the incumbent TE in San Diego, is 34 and slowed significantly down the stretch in 2013. Green caught 17 passes for 376 yards and three TDs last season, highlighted by a three-game stretch in which he caught nine balls for 206 yards and two scores.

Most overvalued player

Chiefs DST -- After leading the NFL with 11 touchdowns scored on defense and special teams in 2013, the Chiefs DST enters this year on the minds of many fantasy owners. Unfortunately, defensive touchdowns are very difficult to predict, and while this unit will still be aggressive under Bob Sutton, 11 touchdowns is likely an outlier. Drafting the Chiefs DST among the elite fantasy defenses is a big mistake this season, even though it finished as the second-best DST in fantasy last year.

Most undervalued player

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​Dwayne Bowe, WR – No doubt, Bowe has been a fantasy thorn in the sides of nearly everyone who has drafted him, and Reid’s offense didn’t seem to squeeze much more out of him last season in spite of Smith’s big year. Bowe's 57 catches for 673 yards and five touchdowns ranked among the worst seasons of his career. We know he has the talent and the size, but he needs to put it together consistently. The NFL is checking out his marijuana arrest from late last season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a suspension is on the way. The news that Bowe hired a nutritionist and dropped from 221 to 212 pounds coupled with McCluster's move to Tennessee makes Bowe a good value in Round 9 of your draft. It’s the perfect spot for a WR4 that actually has WR2 upside.

Depth chart

QB: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel

RB: Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis, De’Anthony Thomas

WR: Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, A.J. Jenkins

TE: Anthony Fasano, Travis Kelce

K: Ryan Succop

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Davis is expected to see more touches in Kansas City’s backfield, which we thinks works in Charles’ advantage, as he’ll be better rested/less beaten up each week. Davis has to be considered one of the top handcuffs in the game, along with Seattle’s Christine Michael. Davis’ backup, rookie De’Anthony Thomas, could see work in the slot this year, picking up where McCluster left off.

Kelce, another Chiefs sophomore from the Class of 2013, had microfracture surgery on his knee last year, which killed his rookie season. He was considered one of the top rookie tight ends coming into last summer, right behind Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz. The Chiefs plan to use plenty of two-tight end sets this year, especially now that there aren’t many passing options outside of Charles and Bowe.

Defensive analysis

We already laid out the unlikelihood that the Chiefs defense offers the same value it did last season, but one more note to point out: Kansas City’s strength of schedule for the regular season is ranked 30th for fantasy defenses. In other words, this defense/special teams plays a schedule against some very good offenses in 2014, and only two other defenses (Oakland and Denver) play a tougher schedule. That definitely says something about the offenses in the AFC West -- and the AFC East and NFC West, as well, which they also play. 

One of the reasons they scored those touchdowns -- and gave up so much yardage -- was their aggressive pass rush and focus on forcing turnovers. Defensive tackle Tamba Hali and linebacker Derrick Johnson are both IDP draft-worthy.