Five Sleepers to Target in Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Power has not been an issue for Brandon Lowe, who had 39 home runs in 2021. However, batting average has. Still, that could improve this year with the new ban on shifts. The lefty was shifted on 85.3% of the time in 2022, and the result was a .297 Weighted On-base Average (wOBA). However, when Lowe was not shifted on, his wOBA was considerably better at .362. Lowe was mired with injuries last season, but his exit velocity was better in his 65 games played than it was in 2021. It’s hard to find power at second base, and assuming Lowe can stay healthy, he can easily outperform his 12th-round ADP. 

Polanco had a down season in 2022, but it was also riddled with injury. Despite playing in only 104 games last season, Polanco still hit 16 home runs and stole three bases. Fourteen of those homers came before the knee injury at the All-Star Break. The lefty could benefit from the shift ban in 2023, and he is certainly useful in OBP leagues with his 14.2% walk rate, which is in the top 2% of the league. Also, Polanco has a habit of playing well in odd-numbered years. Don’t believe me? Look it up. Polanco is currently going at an ADP of 147.

The 20-year-old Cardinals prospect is already being compared to Albert Pujols after a monster start to spring training. It’s a small sample size, but his two-homer game on Saturday was impressive as one traveled 470 feet and the other traveled 450 and was estimated off the bat at 115 mph. Across seven spring training games, Walker is batting .429 with an OPS of 1.429, which leads all players. In Double-A last season, Walker hit 19 homers and stole 22 bases with an .898 OPS. The Cardinals could be searching for a DH and there's competition in the outfield, so there’s a possibility Walker starts the season with the club. Even if he starts the season in the minors, it won’t be long before he gets called up to the big show if he keeps playing like this. Walker is going at pick 225.

If you stopped watching baseball in September, you missed Bryan De La Cruz looking like a young stud. Across 92 plate appearances in September and October, the former Astros prospect hit .402 with six homers and a stolen base for the Marlins. His 2022 stat line finished with a .252 batting average, 13 homers and four stolen bases. What’s even better? According to statcast, his expected batting average of .287 was in the 96th percentile of the league. Add that together with a 90.8 exit velocity and 11.9% barrel rate, and De La Cruz looks like a potential steal in the 23rd round of fantasy drafts, as Cruz is expected to earn the starting leftfield job for Miami. 

Last year, I predicted Winker would disappoint with his move to Seattle, but I certainly didn’t expect him to fall off as much as he did. Winker finally had the breakout season we all were waiting for in 2021, slashing .305/.394/.556 with 24 home runs across 113 games while calling the affectionately named “Cincinnati Small Park” home. After moving to Seattle, that slash line read .219/.344/.344 and he tallied only 14 home runs in 136 games played. So what happened? Shortly after the season ended, Winker revealed he was playing with a knee injury for which he had surgery in the offseason. Now Winker goes to another hitter’s park in Milwaukee -- a park in which he is a career .344 hitter with a 1.032 OPS. At an ADP of 226, I am all in on Winker, who is especially useful in OBP leagues.