Atlanta Braves 2024 Roster Projection 1.0

I don't think the order of Strider or fellow young stud Max Fried matters - the point is, they're both at the top of the rotation. (I actually think Max is more likely to get the Opening Day start, owing to his tenure with the team). 

But we've got Strider listed as SP1 because he was Atlanta's most accomplished pitcher last year, leading all of baseball in strikeouts (281), strikeout rate (13.5 K/9) as well as wins (20) and winning percentage (.800). 

And with his new curveball, which he unveiled on Saturday in Atlanta's first spring training game, Strider could - somehow - reach an even higher plane of dominance in 2024. 

Fried's the co-ace of the team, along with Strider, and the likely Opening Day starter for the fourth consecutive year. 

Entering a contract year, Fried's the best bet for non-Strider pitchers who could contend for a Cy Young, given his dominance in 2022 - Max went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA and was the runner-up in the National League to Miami's Sandy Alcántara and his generational dominance. Alcantara went 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA in 2022, throwing six complete games with a shutout against the Braves.   

Fried made his Grapefruit League debut on Monday, throwing two scoreless, hitless innings against the Orioles with one walk and two strikeouts. 

And now you're out of the "young guns" category and into the "crafty veterans" tier with the 40-year Morton. Similar to Fried and Strider being somewhat interchangeable here at the top of the rotation, Morton and Sale's order feels more contingent on what order Strider and Fried go - the ability to either stack the righties or the lefties feels like the main factor in which order you throw the mid-rotation veterans. 

But Morton, who returned after Atlanta picked up his club option, is undoubtedly feeling the "unfinished business" aspect to this season - he missed Atlanta's NLDS elimination due to a sprained finger. Look for big things from the veteran righty. 

Sale, one of Atlanta's three big offseason imports from outside the organization, comes into the clubhouse with significantly reduced expectations compared to his time in Boston - Sale went from being announced the Opening Day starter for the Red Sox back in September to potentially not even pitching in Atlanta's opening three-game series in Philadelphia. 

But Sale's not really here for the regular season - as we saw in 2023, Atlanta can get through the long season with the pitching they have and that potent offense behind them. No, Sale's here for October, and MLB's career strikeout rate leader (11.1 K/9, minimum 1000 career innings) is primed to do damage in the postseason.

He's also (reportedly) the healthiest he's been in a long time, so the rest of the league's officially on notice. 

And here's where the real debate begins. 

We've got López making the Opening Day roster as the 5th starter over Bryce Elder not for performance reasons, but for flexibility: Elder has minor league options, and optionable pitchers are few and far between on this roster. 

Lòpez, an early career starter who moved to relief and is attempting to convert back into a starting role, is stretching back out in spring training, and took bulk innings behind Max Fried on Monday afternoon against Baltimore. He performed well, allowing only one hit in two innings of work...but unfortunately, that hit was a home run to Orioles third baseman Jordan Westburg. 

By having López in the rotation and Elder in Gwinnett to open 2024, Atlanta can let Elder continue to start every fifth day while allowing López to continue to work on the conversion back to starting. If there's an injury, it's easy to call up Elder and stick him back into the rotation. If López struggles in the rotation, there's an obvious answer, sticking him back into the bullpen and letting him work in a multi-inning role. 

The bullpen is another place where options are in short supply. Most of Atlanta's relievers don't have options, which tracks, as most of them are on long-term deals. Whatever this looks like to start the season, expect it to change.  

BULLPEN
Closer: RHP Raisel Iglesias
Set-up: LHP A.J. Minter
Set-up: RHP Pierce Johnson
Middle: RHP Joe Jiménez
Middle: LHP Aaron Bummer
Middle: RHP Daysbel Hernández (3 options available)
Middle: LHP Dylan Lee (2 options available)
Long: RHP Jackson Stephens

We've got Hernández and Lee, who both possess multiple options, making the roster out of camp thanks to López starting in the rotation and Matzek potentially requiring a rehab stint. Per a report from the AJC's Justin Toscano, Lee was pitching through shoulder issues last season and is finally feeling healthy after offseason shoulder surgery "cleaned up some loose bodies" in the joint.  

INJURED LIST:
15-day: LHP Tyler Matzek - the veteran hinted at it last week, and for roster flexibility reasons (Matzek has no options left), a rehab stint in Gwinnett for the lefty makes sense as it'd give the team the ability to carry another reliever with options that can be sent down at any time.

60-day: RHP Ian Anderson (starter), RHP Penn Murfee, LHP Angel Perdomo - this trio is recovering from surgery, with both Anderson and Perdomo having Tommy John last year and Murfee having just an unspecified "elbow surgery" that's believed to be an internal brace. They'll both be on the 60-day injured list once Atlanta does a transaction that allows for a corresponding move.   

GWINNETT:
RHP Huascar Ynoa - continuing to work as a starter, he's reportedly trying to get his slider back to what it was prior to Tommy John surgery as well as trying to improve the quality of his changeup. Since he has options, it feels like a given that he's put in Gwinnett to continue working things out. 

RHP Allan Winans, LHP Dylan Dodd, RHP Darius Vines, RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP Hurston Waldrep - this rotation at Gwinnett's going to be six or seven deep and potentially very good, for however long they're together before folks get called up to help out the MLB club. 

We know the entire starting nine at this point, and probably even the order they'll bat in: 

RF Ronald Acuña Jr
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
1B Matt Olson
DH Marcell Ozuna
CF Michael Harris II
C Sean Murphy
LF Jarred Kelenic
SS Orlando Arcia 

This is the lineup (minus Sean Murphy) that Atlanta rolled out versus Baltimore on Tuesday. We know all nine players without a doubt and are just quibbling over the order at this point.  

Just as there not really being any unknowns until we get to the 5th spot in the rotation, it's the same here with the bench...and even here, there are some knowns. 

LOCKS
Travis d'Arnaud
Luis Guillorme

d'Arnaud is essentially a co-starter and one of the most trusted veterans in the clubhouse, and Guillorme was signed with the intention of being the primary infield backup on the bench (barring injury).

Rather, the discussion is about the final two spots: We know at least one of them will be an outfielder, and Alex Anthopoulos is on the record as saying that "speed will be a factor" in the selection. 

FAVORITE
OF Forrest Wall - Wall, who was called up in June last season, stole 52 bags in 60 tries for Gwinnett and was five of six at the major league level. He's also a capable defensive backup at all three outfield positions. Despite being relatively untested from an offensive at the major league level (he has 15 career MLB plate appearances, all coming last year), that's not why he'd be on the roster - he's there to run and play defense. 

(Worth noting, though: Wall was 6-13 last season with a homer and two doubles in those plate appearances, as well as going 1-1 with a homer late in Monday's matchup against the Orioles...with the caveat that he hit it off of NRI Jean Pinto, who pitched to a 3.10 ERA between High-A Aberdeen and AA Bowie last season.)

THE FOURTH SPOT: 
I've maintained for a while that the best usage of David Fletcher, rather than having him sit on Atlanta's bench and not take an at-bat for two months (ask Charlie Culberson about that), is to play every day in Gwinnett under the hope that another team needs a shortstop and is willing to take on his $14M in salary obligations for the next two seasons (plus the 2026 buyout). 

And so if that happens, the fourth spot is up in the air. J.P. Martinez, who was acquired earlier in the offseason from the Texas Rangers, is on the 40-man roster and has experience playing all three defensive positions. But it's the same for him as Fletcher - rather than sitting and not seeing the field for two months, is it better to let him play every day in Gwinnett so that he's getting regular at-bats if you need another outfielder due to injury? 

If that happens, look for either Eli White or Jordan Luplow to win the final bench spot, with the caveat of them needing to be added to the 40-man roster. Also, with so many open spots - the Braves have only 37 right now, and can add up to three more if needed by moving the trio of Anderson, Murfee, and Perdomo to the 60-day IL - Atlanta's in a prime position to snag a veteran NRI that's not going to make their major league roster and gets released in the days before spring training. 

(Several MLB veterans that sign minor league deals have specific dates in which they either need to be elevated to the MLB roster or given the option of being released so they can try to find a big league job somewhere else.)