Do the Atlanta Braves adjust their offensive strategy for the 2024 season?

If you watched several of the team's games last season, there was a common theme for the first inning - Ronald Acuña Jr gets on base (or hits a home run). No matter if he's on first or second, he usually attempts a steal to get 90 feet closer to home and then one of the trio of Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, or Matt Olson drives him home. 

The Braves scored 146 first inning runs, representing 65 out of 162 games. And this early scoring had a compounding effect, with Atlanta scoring four or more first-inning runs fourteen times, tied for 2nd-most in the Modern Era (since 1900), per MLB.   

The advantage of moving a runner up 90 feet is easy to see. And roster adjustments may make it even easier to attempt more steals in 2024. 

New leftfielder Jarred Kelenic, while putting up essentially the same sprint speed last season as the now-departed Eddie Rosario (28.0 ft/sec for Kelenic vs 27.9 for Rosario), grades out much better as a baserunner compared to Rosario, who was below-average per MLB Statcast in Baserunning Run Value. 

Forrest Wall, the default 4th outfielder at this point in the offseason, could legitimately be the fastest player on the team and is a significant baserunning upgrade from a speed perspective over Kevin Pillar 

(It should be noted that although Pillar posted his highest sprint speed since 2015 in last season, he went only 4/5 on stolen base attempts. That speed wasn't used to steal in 2023.)  

Those roster changes plus better health from Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies means Atlanta should be more active on the basepaths, with four regulars who could hit double-digit steals and one key backup in Wall that's quite the prolific minor league basestealer. Wall stole 52 bags in 60 attempts for Gwinnett last season in only 90 games, a Gwinnett record.

I'm honestly torn here. As I mentioned, Ronald was a legitimate game-changing threat at the top of the lineup, changing how pitchers approached his teammates and applying pitcher from the first pitch of the game. 

But he wasn't actually that efficient at stealing bases in 2023, with the league average coming in at 80.2% and Ronald just a few ticks above, at 83.9%. It's probably the only thing he's barely above average at doing. 

The sabermetricians will tell you that an individual stolen base isn't worth that much, adding somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3 runs to the team's total when it's successful.

With the focus on Acuña's stolen bases from opposing batteries, given what he did last season, it's a legitimate question about whether or not he'll attempt to run more or less. But know that there's a significant chance that Atlanta's stolen base totals end up being heavily influenced by what Acuña does on the basepaths in 2024. 

Like we said, the individual value of a stolen base isn't thought to be worth that much, in the long run. And if the true value of a stolen base is closer to 0.2 runs than 0.3, then being caught attempting to steal is more than three times as hurtful, coming in at minus .45 runs. It'd take four stolen bases to make up for every one caught stealing, for the average team.

And we all know Atlanta's not an average team.

This was one of the most prolific offenses in history, one that scored a predominantly high percentage of its runs via the homer. What's the difference in being on 2nd and 3rd if the guy behind you is likely to park it in the seats? Not much.

But the cost of being thrown out on the basepaths is significantly higher for this offense versus several others, given the propensity for this lineup to launch a bomb into the second deck from virtually any spot in the lineup. 

So it may be a scenario in 2024 where Acuña has a green light