Looking at Atlanta Braves rotation options for the rest of the regular season and postseason

The Atlanta Braves have had a league-leading offense this season, and it's helped offset a pitching staff that's been plagued by injuries, missing starters Max Fried and Kyle Wright for a majority of the 2023 season.

Fried and Wright combined for six starts and 365.2 innings last year, and those innings were highly-effective for Atlanta: Max Fried was the NL Cy Young runner-up, and Wright led all of baseball in wins with 21. 

This season, however, injuries to Fried (hamstring, forearm) and Wright (shoulder) have limited the duo to just 44.2 innings, with Fried looking as effective as ever and Wright struggling to find the zone (ten walks in 18.2 innings) and keep runs off the board (5.75 ERA). They're both on the 60-day IL at the moment. 

Kyle Wright is targeting a September return, doing flat ground work and preparing to get on the mound for full bullpen sessions. Fried is farther along in his rehab, having made three rehab start and being expected to make one more next week before being activated in the first week of August. 

And so, Atlanta's rotation could significantly change in just a few weeks. Here's what Atlanta's rolled out for most of the season as their core group of starters:

SP1: Spencer Strider - 11-3, 3.78 ERA in 20 GS
SP2: Charlie Morton - 10-7, 3.36 ERA in 19 GS
SP3: Bryce Elder - 7-2, 3.30 ERA in 20 GS 

Strider and Elder were both selected to the All-Star Game, with the trio combining to cover 49 games of Atlanta's 98 games so far this season. 

After the three, Atlanta's turned to several other options for different stretches in the rotation: 

SP Jared Shuster: 4-2, 5.00 ERA in 9 GS (currently in minor leagues)
SP Dylan Dodd: 2-1, 7.40 ERA in 5 GS (currently on 7-day IL in minors)
SP Michael Soroka: 2-1, 5.52 ERA in 5 GS
SP AJ Smith-Shawver: 1-0, 4.32 ERA in 3 GS (currently in minor leagues)
SP Kolby Allard: 0-1, 6.57 ERA in 3 GS (currently on 60-day IL)
SP Allan Winans: 0-0, 4.15 ERA in 1 GS (currently in minor leagues)

Atlanta's also thrown a few "bullpen games", with Jesse Chavez (1 GS), Collin McHugh (1 GS), and Dylan Lee (1 GS) being the "opener" for those games and getting credit for a game start. 

As we discussed yesterday, Atlanta's only going to need a four-man rotation for the next week, given that there's two off days this week (today and Thursday). It's entirely possible that the Braves can use just Elder, Strider, Morton, and newly-claimed Yonny Chirinos all the way to the trade deadline, assuming that Fried is ready to come back for game one of the Angels series that starts on Monday, July 31st in Atlanta. 

Once Fried returns, the rotation would look more like this, based on the timing of probable starts over the next week: 

SP Max Fried
SP Charlie Morton
SP Spencer Strider
SP Bryce Elder
SP Yonny Chirinos

Once the postseason starts, based on the built in off days in the schedule, only three starters are needed in the wild card and divisional rounds, with a fourth being needed for the NL Championship Series and the World Series. Based on current standings, it's highly likely that Atlanta gets to skip the Wild Card Round and can set a rotation for the Divisional Series of Fried, Strider, and Morton. In the NLCS, assuming the previous round goes the distance and no starters are used in relief, the rotation could be Fried, Strider, Morton, and then Soroka, Elder, Chirinos, a current minor leaguer, or a trade acquisition as the 4th starter. Same for the World Series, were Atlanta to advance.

This is all without assuming Kyle Wright has time to return to the rotation before the postseason, but Wright's inclusion on the postseason roster gives you another option for a 4th starter. 

With as many rotation options as Atlanta has at their disposal, it doesn't appear that the Braves and GM Alex Anthopoulos should be desperate to acquire a starter at the trade deadline, but he and the front office also have better insight into both the health and the future availability of those currently unavailable pitchers. 

It's entirely possible a starter that would work well in relief could be an option for Atlanta, so that they not only have extra insurance for the regular season (especially if Fried and/or Wright suffers a setback) but also as an additional bullpen arm for the postseason. 

Either way, a veteran bullpen arm to take on some medium and high-leverage innings feels likely to be added at the deadline, and we'll have more on that later this week. 

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