What constitutes a "good" season from Chris Sale in 2024?

Fun fact: Chris Sale's career 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings is actually the all-time career record in MLB for a player wit a minimum of 1000 innings pitched. 

And last season was right in line with his career norms. 

Despite the unsightly 4.30 ERA, Sale's second-highest mark of his career (4.40 in 2019), Sale struck out 11.0 batters per nine innings, logging 125 punchouts in his 102.2 innings. On a rate basis, Sale was one of the twenty-best pitchers in all of baseball last season, as measured by xwOBA. 

(Long story short, Expected Weighted On Base Average is a measure that takes the inputs - launch angle, exit velocity, etc. - of batted balls and combines them with non-batted ball events like strikeouts, walks, etc. to spit out a single number that illustrates a player's performance. It's not perfect, as no metric is, but it has its usefulness to easily compare different types of hitters and the value of their offense.) 

Sale's .293 xwOBA allowed, as measured by Statcast, was 20th in all of baseball amongst pitchers who threw at least 1000 pitches. 

And if you were curious, both Max Fried's .258 and Spencer Strider's .273 are top ten figures in baseball, with Strider coming in 7th and Fried coming in 2nd. (Important caveat, though: The top four is full of players with sample sizes just over the 1000 pitch threshold, with the first full-season performers coming in 5th, 6th, and 7th. Not saying it's not statistically significant, as xwOBA usually stabilizes around 1000 pitches, but wanted to give that caveat.)

And Sale's expected ERA - which is just xwOBA translated to pitching terms (ERA) instead of offensive terms - was more in line with what you'd expect from a top arm, at only 3.61. (More fun facts - new Braves trade acquisition Aaron Bummer had the single worst underperformance of his expected ERA, at 3.58 expected versus an actual 6.79 ERA, so there's definitely reason to believe he's better than what showed up in Chicago in 2023. Free agent Shintaro Fujinami, who I've asked Atlanta to sign back in November, had the 3rd-worst underperformance in xERA by almost 2.5 runs.)

And if you want to stay away from "advanced" stats - Sale's swing-and-miss rate of 30% (75th percentile), chase rate of 33% (92nd percentile), and hard-hit rate allowed of just under 35% (80th percentile) were all some of the best marks in baseball last year. 

Sale, when healthy, is still an insanely effective MLB starter. If he's able to show no significant drop in his "stuff", that'll be a success for 2024. 

Sale's pre and post-injury time on the injured list was notable for one significant difference: His fastball velocity. 

The season average for Sale was only 93.8 mph, which is below his career average. A lot of that can be attributed to his velo after he returned from the shoulder issue, when he rarely broke 95 mph with the heater. 

Now, that doesn't mean he wasn't effective from a strikeout basis, Sale just changed how he did things after his IL stint. He threw over 50% fastballs pre-injury, and dropped its usage by over 12% after returning. That pitch share moved mostly to the slider, with it gaining 8% increased usage, although he also increased his changeup about 4% to compensate. 

And what's wild here is that his strikeout rate went UP - not by much, mind you, but he was still able to dominate. 

That's why I've got it listed as a stretch goal - it's clear that Sale doesn't need the increased velocity to be effective, but it'd sure be nice to bring it back. 

(Plus, when Sale averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2017 and 2018, it was one of the best heaters in baseball, coming in at +19 to +22 run value.) 

For more on the value of velocity, here's Spencer Strider talking to Rob Friedman on The Pitching Ninja Show about how more velocity gives you a greater margin for error.

A common observation, in light of the two most recent "early" postseason exits at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2022 and 2023 NLDS, was that this Braves roster was missing an "edge". 

Enter Chris Sale. 

Although the veteran, now thirty-four with three sons, says he's mellowed out just a bit - "I’d say I’m probably picking my spots a little bit better" - former teammates admit that Sale's passion was highly valued in the clubhouse. 

Former catcher AJ Pierzynski and Tyler Flowers, who both shared a clubhouse with Sale and spent some time with Atlanta later in their careers, told David O'Brien of The Athletic ($) that Sale's no-nonsense attitude and competitive drive were one of the things that made him special.   

(Flowers still works for Atlanta as a special assistant in baseball operations.)  

The Braves front office clearly values clubhouse fit, with extensive background work being done on potential roster additions to ensure they're not only baseball fits with the roster, but people fits in the clubhouse. 

And Sale's seemingly checked all the boxes. Again, it's hard to quantify this in on-field performance, but adding a fiery veteran has a way of manifesting itself come October, and I'm predicting we'll see a different looking Braves team come the 2024 postseason. 

No one's suggesting that Chris Sale's regular season numbers won't matter at all this season, but let's be clear:

Sale's here for October.

The veteran closed out the clinching Game Five of the 2018 World Series for the Boston Red Sox with a fifteen pitch, three strikeout inning. He's started seven postseason games in his career, all with Boston. 

Atlanta doesn't need Sale to get through the regular season - this roster could put up 100 wins with or without him.

No, this team needs another high-octane "dawg" for October. And Chris Sale, if everything breaks right, could be that guy.