Filling the gaps: The Braves’ biggest concern entering 2023
With Michael Harris and Vaughn Grissom’s emergences midway through last season, the Braves had two of the most reliable bottom-of-the-lineup hitters in all of baseball – now the bottom of the order looks like a hole to fill.
After the Braves’ decision to option Grissom, along with fellow shortstop Braden Shewmake, to Triple-A on Monday, there are some big question marks as to what the bottom of the order will look like for Atlanta this season.
You’re hot, then you’re cold
Being called up straight from Double-A last May, Harris made the nine spot go from a commonplace easy out to a pitcher’s nightmare. Eventually, he made his way up in the lineup, but before being boosted above Robinson Canó in July, the eventual Rookie of the Year raked from the bottom of the order.
Even after a skid at the end of the season, Harris smacked 123 hits and 49 XBH, good for a .297 average and .853 OPS while coming a dinger shy of a 20-20 season in 2023, the second NL rookie to ever do so.
Then there’s Grissom, who made his debut in August after beginning the season in High-A Rome and hit .347 with a .956 OPS through his first 26 games in the Majors, boosting Atlanta to its fourth straight NL East Title.
But the sophomore struggles hit early, and he gave way to Orlando Arcia in the final week of the season and into the playoffs at second base after a .460 OPS over his final 15 games.
Still, Grissom was the fan favorite to win the starting job at shortstop after Dansby Swanson signed as a free agent with the Cubs in the offseason, but after being optioned to Triple-A on Monday along with Shewmake, it looks like Arcia’s spot for the time being, pumping the brakes on the youngsters’ early rise to the spotlight.
Who fills the gap?
After a spring filled with much of the spark he brought during the Braves’ division comeback, Harris isn’t going anywhere – well, he’ll be tracking down plenty of balls in left-and-right-center field, but his starting spot isn’t in question. He’ll likely be hitting in the bottom half of the lineup again as well, at least to start the year.
But if there’s no Grissom to precede him, then who?
Orlando Arcia is the obvious answer, but there is plenty of swing and miss in his game, as is the case in probable seven-hole hitter Marcell Ozuna.
The duo of Ozuna and Arcia might be the safest bet, as they bring a combined 17 years of MLB experience. But with big swings and big pop comes a combined 1,487-530 career strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those whiff rates can bring rallies to a halt and leaves runners stranded, which has haunted the Braves in the past.
Grissom, as hot a start as he had, might not be ready to provide consistent contact either, like he did through his first month. Despite a small sample size, his whiff rate bolstered from 32.3% in August to 44.4% in September.
It appeared as though a .371 average and .829 OBP in spring training would be enough to earn Grissom a shot at boosting the bottom of the order again, but the nod will go to the veteran.
Arcia, while bringing his OBP above .300 for the first and only time in his career since 2017 last season, is far removed from his most productive season. He hasn’t played more than 70 games since 2019, and hasn’t hit north of .250 in a full season since hitting .277 in 2017 (hit .260 in 59 games in 2020).
Ozuna’s numbers have also take a nose dive in the last two seasons, when he hit at .226 and .213 averages, respectively. He’ll bring the occasional multi-homer game, but he’s a big liability in the lineup as a DH if he can’t bring his OBP back near his .327 career average.
Those options, if they return to form, can bring the thunder, but the lack of consistent contact won’t always feed the top of the order. However, Atlanta is set to welcome back some familiar faces this season that can ignite the bottom of the order.
Comeback season?
If Arcia and Ozuna aren’t providing consistent contact, that puts a lot of stress on Ozzie Albies and Eddie Rosario to put up big numbers. This won’t be easy, as both sluggers are rebounding off of uncharacteristic, injury-riddled seasons.
Albies suffered a fractured right pinky in September that sidelined him for the remainder of the season just days after returning from a foot injury, and Rosario spent over three months on the IL with surgery to fix blurred vision that had him off to a slow start.
Upon return, Rosario was slightly more productive, but nonetheless turned in a career-low .212 average with 53 hits in 80 games. Albies also turned in career lows in batting average (.247), OBP (.294), slugging (.409%) and OPS (.703) in 2022, a sizeable letdown from his playoff MVP campaign in 2021.
Obviously, those guys have proven themselves to be explosive, top-of-the-order caliber bats, but coming off disappointing seasons, manager Brian Snitker will hold his breath until he gets production from his presumed starting second baseman and left fielder.
If the Braves hope to make a run at a fifth consecutive NL East title, it will need threats in each spot in the lineup. Not only are they competing with loaded lineups of the defending NL World Series representative Phillies (with Trea Turner now in the picture), they are trying to win games against future Hall-of-Fame starters like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer of the Mets.
The Braves’ lineup is sure to bring the thunder at the top of the order, but if Atlanta is hoping to string together rallies, it has some holes to fill.
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