Is Austin Riley ready to break out of his slump?

In Monday night’s 12-0 win over the Rangers, Austin Riley drove a 3-0 fastball over the fence in right-center field – leaving every Braves fan wondering if that’s the swing that begins his turnaround after a recent quiet stretch.

That is his first opposite field homer of the season for his seventh long ball. He is now batting .247 after his 1-for-5 night, and he is just 14-for-60 in May. The homer was just his third extra-base hit of the month and his first dinger since May 3 versus the Marlins.

The average might not be as concerning this early in the season as his career-low 6.5 barrel percentage and 8.1-degree launch angle. His .396 slugging percentage is also a career low, and his 27.7 strikeout percentage is his highest since his rookie 2019 season.

The past two games, the Braves have moved Riley down from the three hole to the clean up spot to bat in front of Sean Murphy, who has been raking, to try get him better pitches and allow him to see more pitches before his first at bat. With a walk rate of 11.3%, a career high, and a career- low swing rate of 45.2%, more balls over the plate is just what Riley needs.

He is going to be patient, as he displayed last night by getting to a 3-0 count, but pitchers aren’t going to want to walk a batter with a .729 OPS in front of Murphy, as Cole Ragans displayed. But if Riley can get into more hitters counts and see better pitches, he’s got to get the ball off the ground and utilize the opposite field.

He changed it up on Monday night, hitting four fly balls and hitting an opposite-field bomb, but he had a 50.5 ground ball percentage entering the game with just a 17.8 line drive percentage. He also hit the ball to his pull side 48.6% of the time and just 16.8% to the opposite field.

Only three of his 12 extra-base hits are to the opposite field, and just 10 of his 39 hits are to the right side. His career average opposite field hit percentage is 23.6%, so if he can start taking the ball the other way more often, it should yield better results.

In order to do that, the answer might be to sit on first-pitch fastballs more often. Pitchers are throwing him the fastball a career high 53.3% of the time, and he’s only swinging at 24.3% of first pitches – a career low. Riley is known as a good fastball hitter, but pitchers are hammering him with the inside fastball and jamming him, leading to fewer barreled balls and fewer hits going the other way.

His homer to the Rangers bullpen yesterday provides reason to believe that is changing. Every batter slumps, but Riley has remained patient. While taking walks at an 11.3% rate will boost his OBP (.330), the bat of Riley has proven to be far too lethal to stay on his shoulder that often.

Look out for more opposite-field knocks and elevated balls off of Riley’s bat as he looks to return to his 2022 All-Star campaign, when he boasted a 15.7% barrel rate with a career-high 38 homers.

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