Simulating the NBA Draft Lottery 100 Times to See Where the Jazz Land
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We're now approaching less than two days until the NBA Lottery envelopes are opened and the NBA Draft order is announced. All it takes is a small ounce of luck for a franchise's future outlook to take a leap. For the Utah Jazz, the team holds odds the best opportunity to get the 9th-overall pick with an opportunity to jump even higher.
We put this to the test and decided to go to Tankathon.com to simulate the lottery a few, maybe 100 times. This way we can see exactly how realistic the possibility might be when the odds are put to a real test.
Only a maximum of four teams can move up, allowing us to simulate the lottery 100 times to track the top four, consequently assuming how the remaining picks would result. Below is a chart of how many times each lottery team moved into what pick. out of the total 100 times, along with the total amount of top four appearances within the simulations:
| Teams/Selections | First-Overall | Second Overall | Third-Overall | Fourth-Overall | Total Selections |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Pistons | 16 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 56 |
Houston Rockets | 9 | 18 | 8 | 16 | 51 |
San Antonio Spurs | 8 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 42 |
Charlotte Hornets | 14 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 43 |
Portland Trail Blazers | 19 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 51 |
Orlando Magic | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 28 |
Indiana Pacers | 4 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 31 |
Washington Wizards | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 29 |
Utah Jazz | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21 |
Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 22 |
Chicago Bulls | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
OKC Thunder | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Toronto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
New Orleans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The simulation provided some interesting results to say the least. Here's just a few things that stood out besides the Jazz's placement.
- The Portland Trail Blazers shockingly had the most spins landing first-overall with them winning 19 of the 100 total simulations.
- The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs, who are both tied for the best odds in the lottery, didn't crack the top three in terms of first-overall spins.
- Considering their 6th-best odds, the Orlando Magic rarely ever moved up, only making a jump just over a quarter of the time.
- The Indiana Pacers landed at 4th-overall the second-most times out of the entire pool of teams.
- The New Orleans Pelicans didn't crack the top four a single time. I knew the odds were really low, but this is just sad.
As for the Utah Jazz, the team made a jump into the top four 21% of the time, while securing the first-overall pick just 5% of the time. Considering the team's actual chance of 20.3% chance to top four and a 4.5% chance of reaching the top pick, this is right about where we'd expect the numbers to land.
Maybe numbers actually never do lie...
The Jazz will look for the actual ping pong balls to bounce hopefully in their favor come Tuesday night's lottery. If all goes well, the Jazz will be looking at a top four pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.
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