Heat vs. Knicks Predictions, Injuries & Odds: NBA Playoffs Game 1, 4/30

Author:
Dylan Clemons
Apr 29, 2023 8:53 AM EDT

The Miami Heat are set to take on the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden on Saturday, with tip-off scheduled for 7:30 PM EDT. The Heat and Knicks were at the center of a heated rivalry in the late 1990s, though this series will be the first playoff meeting between the two teams since 2012.

Both teams are loaded with talent and could feasibly make a run for an NBA Championship; however, they’ll have to get through this series first.

Below, we’ll provide our best Heat vs. Knicks predictions and explain how to earn a $150 welcome bonus from FanDuel Sportsbook by clicking on this link.

Miami Heat VS. New York Knicks PREDICTION: New York Knicks -4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Injury Reports for Both Sides Heading Into Game 1

In the NBA Playoffs, injuries play a major role in determining who has the best odds of advancing. Here is the latest injury report for both teams:

New York Knicks Injury Report:

PF Julius Randle - Day-to-day (ankle): According to team sources, Randle was held out of practice on Friday but performed individual shooting and conditioning work.
SG Quentin Grimes - Day-to-day (shoulder): Grimes is expected to be ready to play in Game 1 after sustaining a shoulder injury earlier this week.
C Jericho Sims - Out (shoulder): Sims is out for the season after undergoing surgery on his right shoulder Wednesday.

Miami Heat Injury Report:

SG Victor Oladipo - Out (knee): Oladipo is scheduled to undergo surgery on his left knee in the coming days and will miss the remainder of the NBA Playoffs.
PG Tyler Herro - Out (hand) - Herro underwent hand surgery last week and will miss the remainder of the NBA Playoffs.

Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks Game 1 Predictions

With the injury report in mind, the Heat will have an uphill battle to overcome against the Knicks. The Knicks are expected to have both Randle and Grimes, though the Heat will be missing two key contributors in Herro and Oladipo.

They will need their bench and other starters to make up the slack if they hope to take down the Knicks. In particular, Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry will need to perform at or near their peak capabilities.

Further, the Heat will need to overcome a difficult matchup at center. Bam Adebayo is playing through a hamstring injury, which can limit his explosiveness. Moreover, he struggled a bit last series against Brook Lopez, largely because of the size discrepancy (Lopez stands 7’1” while Adebayo is just 6’9”).

The Knicks feature Mitchell Robinson at center, who stands 7’ flat. If Adebayo is still slowed by his hamstring injury, he may have difficulty outrebounding the lengthy Robinson, which will set the Heat up for failure.

Finally, the Heat will have to deal with three explosive playmakers who seem to play at their best against Miami. Jalen Brunson shot 58.5% from the field against the Heat in 2023, averaging over 20 points and nearly 6 assists.

RJ Barrett similarly has unlocked an unusual level of efficiency against the Heat, shooting 51.6% against them in 2023 (his season average is 43.4%). However, the challenges presented by these two players pale in comparison to those posed by former Heat SF Jimmy Butler.

Butler was dominant in the Knicks’ previous series against the Bucks, averaging 37.6 points and shooting just a tick below 60% in the series. If Butler can manage to continue this level of performance, it may be a short series for the Heat.

As a result, our top Heat vs. Knicks prediction is for the Knicks to cover the -4-point spread, cashing on their (-110) odds for those who back our Heat vs. Knicks predictions.

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Game 1 Best Bets & Player Prop Picks for Heat vs. Knicks Featuring Jimmy Butler & Mitchell Robinson

Beyond the game lines, we have a few player props that make the cut among our top Heat vs. Knicks predictions. The first of these involves Jimmy Butler’s total points prop, currently set at 30.5 (over -105). Butler has been an excellent playoff performer throughout his career, but he’s unlocked a new level in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, averaging 37.6 points and shooting at a near-60% clip.

When a player gets this hot, you don’t question it: whatever he’s doing is working. As a result, our top player prop Heat vs. Knicks prediction is for Butler to surpass his total points prop in Game 1.

Besides Butler, we also like Mitchell Robinson’s total rebounds prop – currently set at 9.5 (over -130) as one of our top Heat vs. Knicks predictions. Robinson will likely be matched up with Bam Adebayo, who he has three inches of a height advantage on. Robinson has also been on a rebounding spree, tallying double-digit boards (18 and 11) in back-to-back games.

With Adebayo also nursing a hamstring injury, Robinson may dominate in the paint. With this in mind, we think Robinson’s total rebounds prop is an excellent value, making it one of our favorite Heat vs. Knicks predictions for Game 1.

Finally, another Mitchell Robinson prop makes the cut among our Heat vs. Knicks predictions: his combined blocks and steals total, set at 1.5 (over -130). Robinson has been a shot-blocking machine so far in the NBA Playoffs, tallying 3, 2, 2, and 4 swats in his last four games. He’s no slouch when it comes to steals either, racking up two in three of his five postseason games so far.

With Robinson set to square off against a considerably undersized Adebayo, he should be able to maintain his shot-blocking momentum. We think he has a great chance of surpassing this prop with blocks alone: adding in steals makes it, well, a steal.

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DraftKings Latest Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Lines & Spreads for Game 1

Here are the latest Heat vs. Knicks betting odds, per DraftKings:

Money line: Miami Heat (+155), New York Knicks (-180)
Point spread: Miami Heat -4 (-110), New York Knicks +4 (-110)
Point total: Over 207.5 (-110), Under 207.5 (-110)

If these lines are jumping out at you or you’d like to trail our top Heat vs. Knicks predictions, hurry over to DraftKings Sportsbook and create an account.

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