Bengal Bets: Top Picks For Massive Monday Night Battle Against Buffalo

The run continues as Cincinnati has now won and covered seven-straight games for the first time since the 1970 season. They are 20-3 against the spread in the past 23 games, tops in the NFL over that span.

In a game this tight, with teams this similar—I'll take the safer quarterback.

Joe Burrow had some miscommunication on routes that led to his first non-tipped interceptions in months against New England. I anticipate those getting solved for a much-needed clean performance.

Josh Allen's elbow injury is hurting his God status just a bit. He has not been as sharp against zone coverage since the ailment popped up and I think Lou Anarumo cooks up another great game plan like he typically has against dual-threat passers.

Trends continue to scream Bengals as well.

• Josh Allen and Burrow on extended rest (eight days or more)? Advantage Joe Cool (Burrow: 6-3 ATS, Josh Allen: 5-10-1 ATS).
• Burrow has faced an opposing offense averaging above 24 PPG seventeen times with the Bengals. Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS, covering nine in a row dating back to last season.
• Home: Bengals have won four straight primetime home games SU and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home primetime games.
• ​​Road: Bengals are 1-22 SU and 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 primetime road games.
• Burrow is 21-6 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or above. In the last 20 years, he’s the 6th-most profitable QB ATS vs. .500 teams or above out of 252 QBs.
• Burrow has covered seven straight games as an underdog dating back to last season, including playoffs (2-0 ATS this season).

The Bills QB makes one or two more mistakes with his higher turnover-worthy play tally and the Bengals make that the difference.

Zigging while everyone else zags on the Monday night total.

In a game this big, I think the defenses buckle down in the red zone and keep things under 50 points. Let's start with some glaring trends.

• Seven of Buffalo's eight road games have gone under the total this season. Going under the total by 7.2 PPG.
• Prime-time unders are 10-1 over the past three weeks and 31-19-1 this season (.620).
• The under is 9-4 in the Bills' last thirteen games (went over last week vs. Bears, the first road over of the season).

The oddsmakers and the public respect the Bills' offense, but overlook the second-best scoring defense in the NFL (17.5 PPG allowed). Leslie Frazier's unit is still formidable even without Von Miller.

Cincinnati will not come out firing on all cylinders like last week after mixing in a new right tackle. Whether it's Hakeem Adeniji or Isaiah Prince, it's going to take a quarter at least to get them in rhythm. Gregory Rousseau and the rest of that front will be ready.

On the other side, Anarumo has consistently stymied great QBs over the past two years, and he'll have just enough magic ready for an offense that slightly dropped off over the past two months (wk 1-11: third in EPA/play, wk 12-16 sixth in EPA/play). 

Logan Wilson will have a lot to do with this being a winner or loser on Monday night. 

The Bengals are placing a spy on Allen, for good reason. The MVP-caliber passer is third among all QBs with 746 rushing yards this season on 6.5 yards per carry.

Good thing the Bengals sports the league's best rushing QB defense. Anarumo's unit is allowing the fewest QB carries per game (3) and fifth-fewest rushing yards (12.9)

Keeping his legs out of this game is crucial and volume will decide the outcome. The prop is 5-1 to the over in 2022 when Allen runs at least 10 times. I'm banking on Wilson and the second level to spy Allen well and make sure he can't power the Bills' rush attack like he has all season.

That's been an underrated key to Buffalo's offensive consistency. Since Week 11, they rank third leaguewide in rushing EPA but are just 12th in success rate. That means they punish teams with big gains when they do break free.

Containing Allen's legs is a huge factor in a win and Bengal Bets this week.