NFL.com Reveals No. 1 Blessing Broncos Country Should be Thankful For
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Denver Broncos fans have much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving Season. The Broncos' four-game winning streak is currently the longest in the NFL, the team is at .500 for the first time since before the season started, and things appear to be heading in the right direction for the first time in way too long.
But what is the thing the Broncos should be most thankful for 11 weeks into the 2023 regular season?
NFL.com’s Jeffri Chadiha says Broncos Country should elated with the “resurrection” of quarterback Russell Wilson.
It was hard to believe Wilson would go from being a future Hall of Famer to a complete disaster in one season, without any chance of rebounding. But look at him now. He's thrown more touchdown passes in 10 games (19) than he did in his entire first year in Denver (16). Not unrelated: The Broncos already have matched last year's win total. Even when Denver was stumbling around at the start of this season, its lack of success had more to do with a defense that couldn’t stop anybody. Wilson was playing much better during that early stretch. He’s improved even more as the season has gone on.
Wilson is playing significantly better football under head coach Sean Payton this season than at any point during Nathaniel Hackett's disastrous tenure in 2022. Of quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this season, Wilson is near the top in many classical statistical categories.
Russ ranks No. 7 in the NFL in completion percentage at 69.1%, up from 60.5% last season. Wilson is tied for third place in touchdowns with 19 while also only throwing four interceptions, tied for the lowest number of any quarterback with 150 dropbacks.
Wilson's 4.75-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio is the best in the NFL as well. The only key statistic where he's not near the top of the NFL is passing yards, ranking No. 21 with 2,079.
Compared to last season, a resurrection, indeed.
It could be argued that while the Broncos' QB is playing significantly better football than what he showed in 2022, the discussion of 'Is Wilson truly back?' might not be as simple. He ranks near the top in classic passing statistical categories, but advanced analytics that take into account situations aren't as favorable.
Among quarterbacks with 150 plays or more, Wilson ranks No. 18 in Success Rate at 46.7%, No. 14 in EPA/Play at 0.078, No. 10 in ANY/A at 6.5, and No. 16 in ESPN’s QBR at 50.5.
The discrepancy in the classic stats compared to the advanced analytics is complicated and due to a myriad of factors. Wilson is tied at No. 11 in the NFL for fumbles with five, ranks No. 4 in the NFL in sacks taken at 32 (many would argue sacks are more a QB statistic than anything else), and had lost the largest amount of EPA due to sacks prior to last Sundays’ games.
Advanced analytics will also not favor Wilson due to the advantageous opportunities the Broncos' special teams return game and defensive takeaways have afforded the offense. Having only scored 32 points off of 12 turnovers with excellent field position, analytics such as EPA will ding Wilson and the Broncos for scoring less often than where they were on the field, suggesting they should be compared to historical averages.
Another area of regression has been Wilson and the Broncos' explosive passing game. An explosive passing play is defined as a pass completion of 20-plus yards.
On the season, Wilson has 24 of these completions ranking No. 19 in the NFL. On 297 attempts, Wilson's explosive pass rate is around 8% of his throws and occurs 2.4 times per game.
During Wilson’s career in Seattle, 10.8% of his dropbacks resulted in an explosive pass. His explosive passes-per-game metrics are far and away the lowest of his career.
The drop in explosives is not entirely Wilson’s fault, as the entire league is taking away explosive passes at a rate not seen in 25 years, thanks to a multitude of factors, but Wilson’s regression from his career norms is far greater than the NFL's average dip over the same time period. Wilson is protecting the ball at a higher rate, but also not at the same rate the explosiveness has diminished.
Wilson’s play is certainly something Broncos Country should be thankful for after the display of dismay in 2022. His play has been good enough that it now seems possible, if not probable, that the Broncos keep Wilson and his contract beyond 2023, while entering this season, they seemed to be trending towards a divorce.
Even though Wilson may not be the same caliber of quarterback he was during his athletic prime in Seattle (and that version may never return given the shift in defensive philosophies greatly impacting passing offenses and the explosive pass game), he can still be a good quarterback for the Broncos.
Be thankful to have good overall quarterback play again in Denver compared to league averages and the best the Broncos have seen since Peyton Manning in 2014.
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