Insider Says NFL Should 'Look Out for the Broncos'
In this story:
The Denver Broncos have evolved into one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL. After starting the season playing absolutely dreadful 1-5 football, and in the midst of the “tank/sell everyone” calls, the Broncos have emphatically turned it around at 6-5 and riding a five-game winning streak.
The Broncos' recent run may be a tad miraculous given the defense’s current takeaway rate, but Denver is playing a physical complementary brand of football emphasizing possession, ball control, and field position, and it seems to be working.
Now very much in the mix in the AFC, what is the current perception of this Broncos team under Sean Payton with Russell Wilson at quarterback? According to NFL insider Ian Rapoport, this team seems to be morphing into a squad many in Broncos Country likely dislike but would take, given their recent history of success.
“They look like a Seattle team. That’s what I keep thinking… I know Russell Wilson is a little older, a lot more married, has a lot more kids, but this looks like a Seattle team. They run the ball well. They get close. It’s not pretty though. The Broncos are hot but they don’t look hot. They aren’t dominating but they are in games enough for Russell Wilson to get (the ball) at the end and make the plays you need and run around and do all the sort of creating that we have seen him thrive with.”
To be fair, this is not exactly the same version of Wilson that was winning games in Seattle. Wilson is not creating explosive plays at the same rate he was during his time in Seattle and is checking the ball down at a rate he has never shown before in his career.
There is some give and take to this approach as Denver is controlling the ball much better and limiting turnovers, but the explosive passes have been much harder to come by of late. This isn’t entirely a Wilson/Broncos issue, as passing stats across the league (EPA/Pass, explosive passes, points) are nearly all at 20-to-25-year lows.
Still, this is a much more conservative game manager version of Wilson. If the “game manager” description comes with winning football games in Denver, no one in the organization nor the fan base should truly care.
The points of emphasis are still relatively true, though, from Wilson’s Seattle days to what Payton is doing in Denver now. The main driver of the offense is the run game, and everything plays off of that and through that. Instead of a high-volume passer racking up counting statistics, the Broncos emphasize efficiency while limiting negative plays.
It isn’t just the identity of the offense that has made Denver a feisty team in the AFC battling for a Wildcard spot, but the defensive turnaround under Vance Joseph is also a key reason why Rapaport believes the Broncos are solidifying into a legit contender.
“I also go back to when they were giving up 1000 yards to the Miami Dolphins and everyone was wondering when Vance Joseph was going to be fired. I kept thinking he was on that Adam Gase team that started 1-10 and came back from the abyss. He has been through this before. Good person to lead this defense back. The defense is playing well and the offense is kind of catching up. I guess look out for the Broncos although it has been a wild wild rollercoaster to here.”
The Broncos' defensive turnaround this season is even more miraculous than the turnaround we have seen from Wilson. While the turnover rate will certainly regress from the 3.2 per game Denver is sporting over its winning streak, the defense can still be much improved compared to whatever it was doing through the first five weeks of the season.
If and when the turnover differential regresses, the Broncos will have to pivot and identify new ways to improve, tweak the formula, and win football games. For now, though, the Broncos are approaching the status of legitimate playoff contenders.
The Broncos have evolved into a physical, smart, turnover-differential-driven team with clutch plays. If that reminds NFL insiders of the Seattle Seahawks epoch, then the Broncos may well be AFC contenders with just six weeks left in the 2023 regular season.
Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.
Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!
