Colts' Win Over Buccaneers Strengthens Playoff Hopes

— On paper, this was a great matchup for Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Buccaneers' defense entered Sunday ranking second-to-last against the pass overall (270.7 YPG) and in yards-per-attempt allowed (8.0 YPA), and allowing a passer rating of 97.1 However, after a productive initial quarter-and-half where Minshew carried a passer rating north of 90.0 and produced a touchdown on the ground, it went awry quickly. First, there was an easy interception for the defense that looked like the result of a miscommunication with Josh Downs. There was another dropped interception later that was accompanied throughout the game by questionable vision and decisions surrounding defensive pressure. Minshew's operation in the presence of pressure (or even when it's not there) remains awkward, but while it wasn't his best game, it certainly wasn't his worst. Minshew finished the game 24-of-41 passing (58.5%) for 251 yards (6.1 YPA), no touchdowns, and 1 interception for a passer rating of 66.2.

— The run game bounces back. The Colts were only able to muster 148 yards on the ground total in their two previous games against the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, and in a tough matchup against a Bucs defense ranking 5th against the run (90.0 YPG) and tied for 3rd in yards per carry allowed (3.7), it wasn't a promising matchup. That didn't matter, however, as the Colts churned up 155 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground as Jonathan Taylor led the way with 91 yards and 2 scores along with Zack Moss' 55 yards. Both players ran tough and angry while also showing off their elusiveness. That'll be key for the Colts to keep that up with how often opponents are setting up to stop the run and make Minshew beat them.

— Michael Pittman Jr. remains vital to the Colts' passing attack. No matter where you fall in the debate of whether or not Pittman is a true No. 1 receiver (it doesn't really matter anyway), he shows up and makes plays, time and time again, and has proven to be the heartbeat of the Colts' passing game. On Sunday, he led all players on both teams with 10 receptions for 107 yards, resulting in 6 first downs. He was already on pace for a heavy statistical season and Sunday's output against the Bucs created an even bigger projection.

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— Grover Stewart, you are still missed. In the first four games that Colts nose tackle Grover Stewart was out serving his PED suspension, the defense gave up an average of 154.0 yards on the ground. While Tampa didn't quite hit that mark on Sunday, they put up a season-high 125 yards rushing, which is 48 more than their 32nd-ranked average of 76.9.  

— This wasn't the best game from the linebackers in the first week of the Post-Shaquille Leonard Era. The Colts made a big move this week by letting go of star linebacker Shaquille Leonard. His performance had taken a steep decline following a pair of back surgeries in 2022, and his playing time had diminished as a result. While I'll start by commending Ronnie Harrison for grabbing an interception in his first game with the team, starters Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed made some uncharacteristic gaffes against the Buccaneers, missing a handful of tackles that both would normally make.

— Another strong effort from the line (as pass rushers). The defensive line didn't have a strong day as run defenders, but they were relentless as pass rushers. Samson Ebukam led the way with a season-high 2.0 sacks and the game-sealing strip-sack while Kwity Paye, Tyquan Lewis, and Isaiah Land all had 1.0, and Dayo Odeyingbo (fumble recovery) and Adetomiwa Adebawore shared another for 0.5 sack each. The majority of these players have strung together a strong last few weeks featuring plenty of sacks, tackles for loss, and fumbles forced and/or recovered.

— Maybe the Colts will still give up a bunch of big passing plays with Nick Cross in the lineup, but can we at least find out? The Colts have a young secondary, but 12 weeks into the season and they are still having miscommunications that are leading to big plays or outright touchdowns. While it feels unfair to pile the bulk of this onto second-year starting free safety Rodney Thomas, he is often in the vicinity when these big plays are happening against the Colts. He and rookie corner Jaylon Jones were both beaten by Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans for a pair of touchdowns on Sunday. Thomas' running mate, strong safety Julian Blackmon, is having an outstanding campaign. Second-year player Nick Cross had a terrific training camp but doesn't get much playing time due to the defense not having much room for an extra defensive back. However, in the rare instance he does get on the field, he seems to make positive plays, and he's done a great job on special teams, which is his primary role. Against Tampa, Cross was in there for a handful of plays in the second half and made a key stop on 3rd-and-long to force a punt. Maybe he won't be some big solution but can we at least see what it looks like for more than a few snaps per game?

— Matt Gay continues to be worth the money. The Colts signed Matt Gay to a four-year, $22.5 million deal this offseason, which is the biggest free-agent contract given to a kicker in NFL history. And now for the first time since 2018, the Colts don't have to worry about what's going to happen on routine kicks. They can simply trot Gay out there, and more often than not, he's going to convert. He did narrowly miss a 58-yard field goal attempt at the end of the first half when he hit the left upright, but that also would've tied a career-long. Most kickers also don't make a kick like that. On Sunday, Gay was 2-of-3 on field goals (67%), converting from 36 and 46 yards, and 3-of-3 on extra points, dialing up 9 points in a 7-point victory. 

— No fair catch penalty? The referees somehow missed a glaringly obvious penalty against the Buccaneers that should've cost them 15 yards. Following a forced three-and-out by the Bucs' defense, it was 4th-and-10 for the Colts at their own 25-yard line with 4:40 remaining in the first half. Punter Rigoberto Sanchez lofted a 53-yard punt to Bucs return specialist Deven Thompkins, who waved for and caught the fair catch, freezing the Colts' coverage team before taking off to run. That's supposed to be a penalty, but it was not despite being the primary thing that everyone in the stadium was watching. Fortunately for the Colts, their defense forced the Bucs to punt on the ensuing drive.