NFL Picks: Week 17

The scenarios have been analyzed and the chances of the Indianapolis Colts making the AFC playoffs would appear to be shaky at best.

But you never know what might happen in the final week of the regular season.

First things first, the Colts (10-5) need to win at home against Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Then the Colts need one of four other 10-5 teams — the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, or Baltimore Ravens — to lose in Week 17.

Problem is, the priorities are different for the opponents of these 10-5 teams. The Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3), who will rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and other key starters. The Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills (12-3), who have the AFC’s No. 2 seed and might rest starters if it’s obvious the Steelers are going to lose and won’t snatch that second seed.

The Titans visit the AFC South Division rival Houston Texans (4-11), who have nothing but pride to play for, but intend to play quarterback Deshaun Watson and other starters as if it were any other week. In the wake of J.J. Watt’s recent criticism of teammates needing to understand the importance of taking their jobs more seriously and showing up to work with dedication regardless of the record, expect the Texans to take this game seriously.

That said, the Titans are favored by a touchdown at NRG Stadium. Should the Titans stumble and Colts win, the Colts would win the division and earn the AFC’s No. 4 seed with a first-round home playoff game.

But, yeah, that’s a reach.

The Ravens are overwhelming favorites at the Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1), so Colts fans probably can’t count on an upset there. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson should have his way with the Bengals.

The Colts haven’t made the playoffs in four of the past five seasons. Although the roster improved this season, the Colts could become just the third 11-5 team since 1978 to fail to make the playoffs. Talk about a dubious distinction.

For what it’s worth, the record on picking Colts games is the same as their 10-5 record. And no real spoiler alert here: The Colts should get to 11-5. Hopefully that means a playoff game. Let the scoreboard watching commence.

The NFL flexed the Colts-Jaguars and Titans-Texans games to 4:25 p.m. The other three games with AFC playoff implications are at 1 p.m. So the Colts should know by kickoff if they got any help elsewhere. The plan is to not show any relevant scores on the Lucas Oil Stadium video boards, but you know that the Colts will know about their “help” or lack of it, one way or another.

Good luck, pickers!

PhilB’s Picks

Dolphins at Bills — Dolphins

Ravens at Bengals — Ravens

Steelers at Browns — Browns

Vikings at Lions — Vikings

Jets at Patriots — Patriots

Cowboys at Giants — Cowboys

Falcons at Buccaneers — Buccaneers

Packers at Bears — Packers

Raiders at Broncos — Raiders

Jaguars at Colts — Colts

Chargers at Chiefs — Chargers

Cardinals at Rams — Rams

Seahawks at 49ers — Seahawks

Saints at Panthers — Saints

Titans at Texans — Titans

Washington at Eagles — Eagles

Week 16 — 9-7 (.563)

Overall — 160-79-1 (.669)

(While these picks are for entertainment purposes only, SI recently launched our Premium Betting Membership backed by Vegas Insiders. SI Fantasy PRO members get real-time betting alerts whenever information comes in. Our NFL, CFB, and MLB plays and information delivered to SI PRO members have gone 177-118-2 YTD so far in 2020.)