NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend
Most media prognosticators are picking the home favorites, the Buffalo Bills, in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts.
It’s the safe selection, considering the second-seeded Bills (13-3) have won nine of 10 games and boast the NFL’s second-ranked offense at 31.3 points per game. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been one of the best at his position as an emerging NFL MVP consideration. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards.
The seventh-seeded Colts (11-5) actually needed the Bills’ help to get a spot in this game — the Bills dispatched the Miami Dolphins 56-26 in Week 17 to provide help to the Colts, who defeated Jacksonville 28-14 to qualify for their second postseason in three years.
But while the Bills are favored by 6.5 points, here’s why the Colts have a chance. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor emerged as a reliable workhorse in the final six games. He ran for 741 yards on 119 carries (6.2 yards per rush) with seven touchdowns in that span. The second-round selection finished the season with 1,169 yards and 11 TDs as well as 38 receptions for 299 yards and another touchdown.
The Bills defense is 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and 26th in rush yards per attempt. If the favorites have an Achilles heel, this is it.
Problem is, even if a Colts offense led by 17th-year quarterback Philip Rivers is successful in moving the ball and scoring points with Taylor making plays, the Bills can still score more. Allen and Diggs have played that well.
The hunch is this game will be closer than some expect. Perhaps that’s an overly optimistic take, but the Colts have shown some resiliency in winning six of eight games to make this date. Yes, they’re maddeningly inconsistent on both sides of the ball, playing excellent for a half and then inexplicably struggling in the other half.
That smells like an up-and-coming team with growing pains. The Colts have shown they can beat the best in the NFC’s top-seeded Green Bay Packers, but they’ve also lost to the worst team, the 1-15 Jaguars. One year removed from quarterback Andrew Luck’s unexpected retirement, the Colts have made positive strides, but just struggle to finish sometimes.
The Bills were that team last year. They made the playoffs as a Wild Card and were ahead 16-0 in the third quarter on the road against the AFC South Division champion Houston Texans. Then everything fell apart in a 22-19 overtime loss.
“I’m definitely not over it,” Allen said Tuesday. “Nothing matters unless we win this one.”
That’s why the pick is the Bills. In the end, the gut feeling is that Allen will refuse to let his team lose this time.
Good luck, pickers!
PhilB’s Picks
Colts at Bills — Bills
Rams at Seahawks — Seahawks
Buccaneers at Washington — Buccaneers
Ravens at Titans — Ravens
Bears at Saints — Saints
Browns at Steelers — Steelers
Week 17 — 13-3 (.813)
Overall — 173-82-1 (.677)
(While these picks are for entertainment purposes only, SI recently launched our Premium Betting Membership backed by Vegas Insiders. SI Fantasy PRO members get real-time betting alerts whenever information comes in. Our NFL, CFB, and MLB plays and information delivered to SI PRO members have gone 177-118-2 YTD so far in 2020.)
