What History Reveals About a First-Round Quarterback’s Success Rate

As with anything, the NFL draft, regardless of round and position, is a crapshoot. Sometimes, not even the most careful vetting can avoid hitting on busts.

That applies to the quarterback position. For football enthusiasts who have screamed for the team to take a quarterback in the first round, the odds of such a quarterback being a total flop are on par with any other position.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell researched first-round quarterbacks' success and bust rates in those “quarterback-rich” classes dating back to 1983. The quarterbacks were classified into five categories: Hall of Famers/Future Hall of Famers, franchise quarterbacks, solid starters, low-end pro careers, and disappointments.

The results were eye-opening, albeit not surprising. A whopping 44.4 percent of first-round quarterbacks drafted in those “quarterback rich” classes ended up in the “disappointment” category.

You can see the finer details of his research in the article (subscription required), but to summarize the rest of the findings, out of 45 first-round quarterbacks covered in the study, 20 percent fell into the “franchise” category, 17.8 percent in the Hall of Fame/Future Hall of Fame category, and 4.4 percent in the low-end starter category.

So that brings us to the Giants and what they need from their quarterback position. If there is one thing that both supporters and detractors of current Giants starter Daniel Jones can agree on, it’s that his injury history—two neck ailments in three years plus a torn ACL that could affect the one thing he’s always had going for him (his athleticism)—is a concern.

Although the Giants signed Drew Lock as a backup, that deal is just for one season, with no promises from either side to extend it.

The Giants also have Tomy DeVito under contract. While he’s likely going to get a chance to compete for a roster spot, if the Giants, as expected, add another quarterback in the draft, it’s going to be very difficult to justify keeping four quarterbacks on the 53-man roster, let alone likely having to keep three.

(In that case, DeVito, if he holds up, would almost certainly land on the practice squad if another team doesn’t come along and scoop him up off waivers.)  

Giants’ co-owner John Mara told reporters at last month’s league meeting that the personnel department considers this year’s quarterbacks class to be one of the deepest in recent history, a good sign to mean that there is enough hope of there being more franchise-type and solid candidates (with perhaps a future Hall of Famer sprinkled in) than there are disappointments.

Not surprisingly, the Giants have done heavy due diligence into the top quarterbacks they have identified as potential fits for what head coach Brian Daboll likes to run. However, when it comes to potentially trading up to get a quarterback, the Giants, a team still missing several key pieces on both sides of the ball that can be had in exchange for precious draft picks, need to exercise caution.

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