Can the Jaguars Snap Their Four-Game Skid? Snapping Turnover Streak Will Give Us a Clue

The Jaguars have seemingly reached terminal velocity, freefalling from their once impressive 8-3 record. The AFC’s one seed was even in their sights at one point in time. Now, just a month later, the Jaguars face a three-way tie for the division lead after losing four straight with just two to play.

The defense has noticeably regressed, allowing mediocre quarterbacks to dice them up and failing to create the turnovers they once did earlier in the season. Two of the recent losses have come to backup quarterbacks, who performed far better than expected against the previously terrorizing Jaguars’ defense.

It’s the offense, however, that has fans even more perplexed. The Jaguars entered 2023 with visions of grandeur. An offense starring Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram looks like one of the better offenses in the league on paper. In practice, it has been far from the case.

The offense showed lots of promise early in the year. Etienne was on pace to have a career season and Ridley’s talent was on full display from week one. It was a lack of consistency that held back the offense. They could move the ball and score; it just came in bunches at a time.

Nowadays, the team is certainly consistent but not in the positive sense. The Jaguars’ run-game has become nonexistent, forcing Press Taylor to call more screen plays than any other team in order to compensate. In the last seven games, Travis Etienne has averaged a measly 38 yards per game and an appalling 3.2 yards per carry.

To further put this atrocity into perspective, Etienne is averaging just 2.6 yards in the team’s last three games. Etienne’s numbers continue to plummet as his once promising season withers away. Simply put, the run-blocking hasn’t been nearly good enough.

The pass-blocking, while leagues better, hasn’t fared too well as of late either. Trevor has faced injury after injury, most recently a sprained AC joint to his right shoulder. That’s atop his concussion, knee sprain and high-ankle sprain.

The injuries are certainly partly to blame. The offensive line has sent out a new starting five on an almost weekly basis as every member of the line has faced injuries aside from Luke Fortner. Luckily, Anton Harrison seems to be alright moving forward after a back injury this past week and Cam Robinson is expected to return soon.

Every team faces their fair share of injuries throughout the season. Injuries happen and are expected. Regardless of injury, the team simply has to be better.

Doug Pederson spoke on what exactly is holding the team back, “The one thing that I know being around this league, everybody wants to point the finger somewhere and we’ve got to do a better job of taking care of the football. It’s not about the plays, it’s not about it.”

He went on to add, “We’ve got to tackle better, we’ve got to take care of the football bottom line. We do those two things, those give us a chance to win football games. If we don’t, we’re going to be sitting here talking about this again. To me, that’s the glaring difference right now between winning and losing.”

There’s certainly truth to everything Pederson said. The Jaguars have left points on the field time and time again. The Jacksonville defense is second in takeaways this season with 25, yet the team still remains -3 in the turnover differential. Missed field goals, fumbles, interceptions, turnover on downs and time running out have all stripped the Jaguars’ hopes of scoring at various times this season.

Press Taylor gave his thoughts on the turnovers as well, “I think every turnover is different. There’s a number of different reasons for each play. Sometimes, again, it’s not all him [Trevor Lawrence]. At the same time, he understands the importance of protecting the football, ending the down with the football.”

Taylor also noted the team is 31st in the league in giveaways, “That’s unacceptable and that’s been the reason we have been on the slide we have been on.”

Tackling hasn’t been a huge issue until recently. The Jaguars had been a much better tackling team in 2023 than the year prior, however, a season-high 15 missed tackles against the Bucs killed any chance of staying in the game.

While those issues are certainly apparent, there is much more going wrong than what has been stated. The run-game has forced Jacksonville’s hand into becoming the most one-dimensional team in the league. Play-action has also become wishful thinking as it’s hard to run play-action without the fear of a rushing attack.

A one-dimensional offense featuring a noticeably injured quarterback and banged up offensive line is a recipe for disaster and that it has been. The offensive play-calling and usage of Calvin Ridley still puzzles the mind of fans. The team is converting on just 36.4% of 3rd downs and Ridley remains heavily targeted but sporadically impactful.

The team also lacks any big-play ability. The Jaguars’ 7.47% explosive play rate ranks 25th in their league, while their explosive run rate of 6.82% is even worse, 29th in the league. It all comes back to the run-game, neutering the effectiveness and diversity of the Jaguars’ offense.

While Pederson’s message rings true, there is far more holding this team back than just turnovers and tackling. An offensive collapse with their level of talent is inexcusable and doesn’t appear any closer to being fixed. In fact, it’s only worsening.

The Jaguars are in dire need of a remedy and quick as just two games remain with playoff hopes still intact.