Odds Lions Beat Buccaneers in Divisional Round
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The Detroit Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will square off for a second time this season on Sunday at Ford Field (3 p.m. EST). The two teams first met in Week 6 at Raymond James Stadium, with the Lions prevailing, 20-6.
This time around, the winner will advance to the NFC Championship Game.
The Lions last played for an NFC championship during the 1991 season, when they were blown out against the then-Washington Redskins, 41-10.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers last played in the conference title game round during the 2020 campaign. This is when Tom Brady, the team's starting quarterback at the time, led the Bucs to a 31-26 win over the Green Bay Packers, en route to defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.
A lot has changed since then for Tampa Bay.
For starters, Brady is no longer in the league, and Baker Mayfield, the Cleveland Browns castoff, has taken the seven-time Super Bowl champion's spot under center with the Buccaneers.
Also, Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay's defensive coordinator during its aforementioned Super Bowl run, is now the team's sideline boss. He succeeded Bruce Arians as the Bucs’ head coach in 2022. Arians now serves as a senior football consultant for the organization.
The duo of Mayfield and Bowles was instrumental in Tampa Bay going 9-8 and winning the NFC South division crown in 2023.
Mayfield, for one, experienced a career resurgence. In his first campaign with the Buccaneers, he passed for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career (4,044), and threw for a career-high 28 touchdowns.
His favorite target throughout the season was none other than Mike Evans. Evans, for the 10th consecutive year, produced north of 1,000 receiving yards (1,255). Additionally, he tied the Dolphins' Tyreek Hill with an NFL-best 13 receiving touchdowns.
Mayfield, meanwhile, also played a pivotal role in Tampa Bay's 32-9 win over the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in last week's wild-card playoff round. He outperformed Jalen Hurts, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Hurts amassed 250 yards and one score through the air.
I'd be remiss not to also mention Tampa Bay's star-studded defense. You can argue it's played an even bigger role in the team's overall success in 2023.
The unit has playmakers at each level, from the defensive line (Vita Vea), to the linebacker position (Lavonte David and Devin White) and its defensive backs group (safety Antoine Winfield Jr.). During the regular season, it limited opponents to just 19.1 points per game, the seventh-fewest points in the league.
This aforementioned group of defenders helped the Bucs accumulate 48 sacks in ‘23, tied for the seventh-most QB takedowns in the league with the 49ers, the Jets and the Chargers.
Tampa Bay's pass-rush gave Lions signal-caller Jared Goff fits in the first meeting between the two teams, ultimately sacking Goff three times. And, I believe it will wreak havoc once again on Sunday.
I fully expect Mayfield and the Buccaneers' defense to keep Tampa Bay competitive this weekend. However, at the end of the day, Detroit has the better roster, and should have the upper hand in this divisional round playoff matchup.
At this present juncture, I'm going to give the Lions a 77 percent chance to advance to their first conference championship game since 1992.
