Sportsbook Sets Over/Under for Rodgers’ Passing Yards

Even with Davante Adams on the roster, Aaron Rodgers has fallen short of the 2022 projection twice the past three seasons.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Jun 22, 2022 10:17 PM EDT

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Without Davante Adams to help carry the load, how productive will Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers be in 2022?

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Rodgers’ over/under passing total has been set at 4,120.5 yards.

That’s a big number. In 15.5 games last season – he missed the game at Kansas City due to COVID and sat out the second half of the meaningless finale at Detroit – Rodgers threw for 4,115 yards. In starting all 16 games in 2020, Rodgers threw for 4,299 yards. In 2019, his first season paired with coach Matt LaFleur, he threw for 4,002 yards in 16 games.

So, in two of his three seasons with LaFleur, Rodgers fell short of the 2022 projection.

In his last two healthy seasons under Mike McCarthy, 2016 and 2018, Rodgers eclipsed 4,400 passing yards. He was on pace to beat 4,400 yards in 2017, too, but suffered a broken collarbone early in Week 6.

With the advent of the 17-game season last year, any statistical milestones obviously are easier to hit. Throwing for 4,120 yards under the 16-game format would have required 257.5 yards per game. Now, the figure is 242.4 yards per game. He’s hit that mark five of the last six years. The exception was 2017, when Rodgers was injured on the opening series of the sixth game at Minnesota – an injury that artificially deflated the number.

For his career, Rodgers ranks 12th in NFL history with 259.9 yards per game. Can he get anywhere near that number without an elite receiver after throwing passes to the likes of Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb and Adams throughout his career?

Without Adams (and Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling) for last year’s win at Arizona, Rodgers was limited to 184 passing yards. In 2020, with Adams missing most of the Week 2 game against Detroit and all of the next two games against New Orleans and Atlanta, Rodgers averaged 283.3 yards per game. When Adams missed four consecutive games in 2019, Rodgers averaged 295.3 yards per game.

At SI Sportsbook, Rodgers is +1400 to lead the NFL in passing yards – something he’s never done in his career. Rodgers has the ninth-shortest odds to win the yardage title, with the Chargers’ Justin Herbert (+700), the Buccaneers’ Tom Brady (+750) and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (+800) and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow (+800) being the favorites.

No Packers are on SI Sportsbook’s board to lead the NFL in receiving yards. At FanDuel, one Packers receiver is on the list: rookie Christian Watson is +7500. Davante Adams, now with the Las Vegas Raiders, is +1200. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, now with the Kansas City Chiefs, is +6000.

Grading the Packers' Depth at Every Position

Looking beyond the starters, here are the position groups that are strong and the units that could use a veteran addition.

Quarterbacks

Danny Etling and Jordan Love drop back to pass at practice. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starter: Aaron Rodgers

Backups: Jordan Love and Danny Etling

Grade: B. Drafting Love was an enormous mistake. In 2020, the Packers were coming off a trip to the NFC Championship Game. Using a first-round selection on a quarterback was a waste of a draft pick, no matter what GM Brian Gutekunst said when that phrase was used before the draft. Compounding matters, Love wasn’t good enough to triumph in winnable road games against the Chiefs and Lions. Still, Love has talent and some experience. There are a lot worse backup situations than Green Bay’s.

Running backs

AJ Dillon runs past offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starter: Aaron Jones

Backups: AJ Dillon, Kylin Hill (injured), Patrick Taylor, B.J. Baylor (rookie), Tyler Goodson (rookie)

Grade: A. What a luxury for coach Matt LaFleur and position coach Ben Sirmans to have Jones and Dillon leading the backfield. They are superb, do-it-all running backs and excellent examples for the rest of the depth chart. Last season, they combined for 2,306 total yards and 17 total touchdowns. Looking beyond their lightning and thunder, Hill impressed last preseason and Taylor really flashed in the regular-season finale at Detroit.

Receivers

Juwann Winfree turns upfield after catching a pass vs. Arizona. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb

Backups: Christian Watson (rookie), Amari Rodgers, Romeo Doubs (rookie), Juwann Winfree, Malik Taylor, Samori Toure (rookie), Danny Davis (rookie).

Grade: C. Honestly, who knows? Assuming the three veterans stay healthy and are the Week 1 starters, the seven players battling for snaps and spots behind them on the depth chart combined to catch 14 passes in the NFL last season. Rookie or veteran, the best of the bunch during the offseason practices was Winfree. That was true last year, too. Drafted in the sixth round by Denver in 2019, he had the first eight catches of his career but also the only two fumbles by a Packers receiver all season. Rodgers could challenge Cobb for snaps and all four of the rookies had their moments.

Tight ends

Josiah Deguara scored a long touchdown at Detroit in Week 18. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan (injured)

Backups: Tyler Davis, Josiah Deguara, Dominique Dafney, Alize Mack, Eli Wolf

Grade: C-plus. Davis was one of the stories of the spring. A sixth-round pick by Jacksonville in 2020, Davis landed in Green Bay early last season. He wound up catching only four passes in 14 games but showed some real potential as a receiver during the offseason practices. “Definitely, I feel like I’m scratching the surface. I feel like I can turn into a pretty special player,” he said last month. This will be a big training camp for Deguara, a third-round pick in 2020 who hasn’t made much of an impact.

Offensive line

Yosh Nijman gets loose before practice. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: LT David Bakhtiari, LG Jon Runyan, C Josh Myers, RG Royce Newman, RT Yosh Nijman, Elgton Jenkins (injured)

Backups: C/G Jake Hanson, G/T Cole Van Lanen, G/T Sean Rhyan (rookie), C/G Zach Tom (rookie), T Rasheed Walker (rookie), C/G Michal Menet, T Caleb Jones (rookie), G/T George Moore (rookie), C/G Cole Schneider (rookie)

Grade: B-minus. This grade is based on the assumption that Bakhtiari will be a season-long starter and Jenkins will return at some point, too. Based on how he played last season and his excellent series of offseason practices, Nijman could be the best swing tackle in the NFL. He’s so athletic and explosive. On the interior, will Rhyan or Tom step to the forefront when they put on the pads and have to block Kenny Clark or Devonte Wyatt? Whether it’s the rookies or Hanson or Van Lanen, someone is going to have fill the utility role manned by Lucas Patrick. In case disaster strikes and neither Bakhtiari nor Jenkins are available, the Packers laid the groundwork of having Newman step out to right tackle.

Defensive line

Devonte Wyatt (left) and TJ Slaton talk shop at practice. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, Jarran Reed

Backups: TJ Slaton, Devonte Wyatt (rookie), Jack Heflin, Jonathan Ford (rookie), Chris Slayton, Akial Byers (rookie), Hauati Pututau (rookie)

Grade: A. There’s some projection here because Slaton played a relatively quiet 255 defensive snaps as a rookie and Wyatt, a first-round pick, has to prove he’s an NFL player, as well. But Clark, Lowry, Reed, Slaton and Wyatt looks like one heck of a five-man rotation. Clark, Lowry and Reed have proven they can handle heavy workloads but, as is the case with all big guys, sometimes a little less means a lot more.

Outside linebackers

Jonathan Garvin reacts after a missed field goal vs. Washington. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith

Backups: Jonathan Garvin, Randy Ramsey (injured), Tipa Galeai, La’Darius Hamilton, Kingsley Enagbare (rookie), Kobe Jones, Chauncey Manac (rookie)

Grade: D. Every time the Packers took Gary and Smith off the field last season, you could count on the sound of silence from the backups. Garvin was a tough customer against the run but the pass-rush impact was practically nonexistent. Not much has changed. The only addition was Enagbare, a fifth-round draft pick. The Packers did have high hopes for Ramsey last year until he suffered a broken ankle. He said he’d be ready for Day 1 of training camp. Someone’s got to step up.

Inside linebackers

Quay Walker (left) and Krys Barnes will compete for a starting position. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: De’Vondre Campbell, Krys Barnes

Backups: Quay Walker (rookie), Ray Wilborn, Isaiah McDuffie, Ty Summers, Ellis Brooks (rookie), Caliph Brice (rookie)

Grade: B-plus. Campbell and Walker could be an elite tandem. Campbell is coming off an All-Pro season in which he tackled, covered and delivered big plays. Walker, a first-round pick, has a ridiculous combination of size and speed. Combined, they could change the way coordinator Joe Barry lines up his defense. Barnes is no slouch, though. Compared to Campbell, he recorded more tackles per snap and limited running plays to fewer yards per tackle. It appears Wilborn will be given every opportunity to unseat Summers and McDuffie. Special teams will determine how that shakes out.

Cornerbacks

Keisean Nixon talks to defensive coordinator Joe Barry. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Eric Stokes

Backups: Keisean Nixon, Kabion Ento, Shemar Jean-Charles, Kiondre Thomas, Rico Gafford, Raleigh Texada (rookie)

Grade: D-minus. The Packers lined up with three cornerbacks on 80 percent of their defensive snaps last season. That’s life in the NFL. Green Bay is well-positioned to thrive in the modern NFL with their three starters. But what happens in case of an injury? The Packers’ depth is precarious, at best. Throughout the offseason, Nixon served as the next man up. An undrafted free agent in 2019, he’s played 273 snaps on defense. Total. That includes just 80 last season. He has one career pass defensed, which isn’t many but is still one more than everyone else competing to be those fourth and fifth corners.

Safeties

Shawn Davis goes for a leaping interception. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage

Backups: Shawn Davis, Vernon Scott, Innis Gaines, Tariq Carpenter (rookie), Tre Sterling (rookie)

Grade: D-plus. Throughout the offseason, Davis was the next man up at safety. A fifth-round pick by Indianapolis last year, the Packers signed him to their practice squad in September. He wound up playing in one game, with zero snaps on defense and nine on special teams. Scott, a seventh-round pick in 2020 who was banished to the bench for most of last season, the towering Carpenter, a seventh-round pick this year, and Gaines, who made a run at a roster spot last year, will vie for snaps as the third safety. Last year’s third safety, Henry Black, didn’t start any games but played 262 snaps on defense and 315 snaps on special teams.

Special teams

Steven Wirtel stretches before practice. (USA Today Sports Images Photo)

Starters: K Mason Crosby, P Pat O’Donnell, LS Steven Wirtel

Backups: K Gabe Brkic (rookie), LS Jack Coco (rookie)

Grade: Irrelevant. Depth isn’t needed on special teams. Obviously, the battle in training camp will be between Wirtel, who handled the snapping duties for the second half of last season, and Coco, who was signed after the rookie camp. Neither snapped with consistent precision during the offseason practices. At Georgia Tech, Coco snapped on field goals and extra points from 2018 through 2020 and focused on tight end in 2021. He hasn’t snapped for a live punt since high school.

Reviewing the Green Bay Packers Offseason

Here is everything you need to know about the offseason, from key transactions to the big story lines that will stretch into the start of training camp.