One Stud, One Dud Among Top 10 NFL Free-Agent Signings

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Every offseason, tens of millions of dollars are flushed down the drain during NFL free agency. Desperate times call for desperate measures, which at least partially explains why the Green Bay Packers opened the vault for safety Xavier McKinney and running back Josh Jacobs.

Each of those players shows up on Sports Illustrated’s list of the top-10 free-agent signings and top-10 free-agent busts.

Bust: RB Josh Jacobs

It wasn’t just that Jacobs’ rushing total went from an NFL-high 1,653 yards in 2022 to a ho-hum 805 yards in 2023. Or that his yards-per-carry plunged from 4.9 to 3.5. Or that Aaron Jones was the superior runner by practically any comparison.

Rather, Gilberto Manzano didn’t see the need at all.

“This move … doesn’t make sense from a personnel perspective and a budgeting standpoint. Jordan Love wasn’t in need of a workhorse back. The team could have paired AJ Dillon, who re-signed on a one-year, $2.7 million contract, with a rookie or another veteran running back without having to commit $14 million.”

It’s worth noting Jacobs’ four-year, $48 million contract averages $12 million per season, which ranks sixth among running backs. Of the 10 highest-paid backs by annual average, only three played in a playoff game last year.

Nonetheless, Jones’ domination down the stretch shows exactly why the Packers need a top back. Love had his moments through the first two-thirds of the season, but the offense caught fire when Jones was healthy for the stretch run. Jones topped 100 rushing yards during the final three games of the regular-season and the playoff win at Dallas. Love’s play-action passer rating? A near-perfect 154.8.

Is Jones a better player than Jacobs? Maybe or maybe not, but what’s not in dispute is Jacobs is almost four years younger than Jones. This is a transaction with some staying power, so long as Jacobs resembles the All-Pro version of himself. Otherwise, new won’t mean improved.

Best: S Xavier McKinney

Manzano’s tag-team partner, Matt Verderame, picked the 10 best free-agent signings. McKinney ranked ninth. Safety was Green Bay’s biggest offseason need and McKinney was the best safety available.

A second-round pick in 2020, McKinney was healthy for only two seasons due to a football-related injury as a rookie and an ATV accident in 2022. In 2021 and 2023, McKinney amassed 209 tackles, eight interceptions and 21 passes defensed in 34 games. From 2020 through 2023, the man he is replacing in the starting lineup, Darnell Savage, tallied 247 tackles, seven interceptions and 27 passes defensed in 58 games.

It’s not just the plays that were made. It’s the plays that weren’t made. McKinney has consistently been one of the best-tackling safeties in the NFL while Savage has been one of the worst. In 2023, for instance, McKinney missed seven tackles and made 116, giving him 16.6 tackles per miss. Savage made 50 tackles and missed 12, giving him 4.2 tackles per miss.

“I’m glad that we’re back on the same team, I can tell you that,” McKinney said of rejoining his former Alabama teammate. “He’s a special back, somebody that I’m really good friends with. He’s a great teammate. He’s a guy that plays really hard, makes a lot of plays. It’s going to be fun to be back on the field with him and practicing against him.”

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