Heat vs. Nuggets Spread Pick & Betting Odds: NBA Finals Game 5, 6/12
The 2023 NBA Finals are now potentially just a game away from coming to a conclusion. Following the Denver Nuggets’ Game 4 win on Friday night, they now hold a 3-1 series lead over the Miami Heat. The series also shifts back to Denver for Game 5 on Monday night. Therefore, it’s no surprise to see Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets as significant favorites to win their first NBA Finals title in franchise history.
Our experts correctly provided a Heat vs. Nuggets spread pick for Game 4 in this article and we’re back with another Heat vs. Nuggets spread pick for Game 5 below with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
HEAT VS. NUGGETS SPREAD PICK: Miami +9 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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NBA Finals Game 4 Score
Before we get into our Heat vs. Nuggets spread pick for Game 5, let’s quickly recap Friday night’s Game 4. Denver has been the favorite for each game of the series, and they were able to cover on Friday night. While it’s generally been all about Jokic, they were actually led by Aaron Gordon’s 27 points to grab the 108-95 win.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 5 Predictions: NBA Finals
In terms of an overall prediction for Game 5, we do expect the Nuggets to win the series and finally place the first NBA Finals banner in Ball Arena. However, them being back on their home court certainly plays a factor in making our Heat vs. Nuggets spread pick.
With Game 5 back in Denver, oddsmakers have made them nearly double-digit favorites. While we were comfortable backing them with the short spread in Game 4, three possessions simply feels like too large of a point spread for a Heat team that is truly in a do-or-die scenario and has proven to defy all odds up to this point.
The Heat culture may not finish their Cinderella story with a fairytale ending, but they can at least keep things competitive on Monday night.
Game 5 Best Bets & Heat vs. Nuggets Spread Pick Featuring Miami +9
The initial pushback against our Heat vs. Nuggets spread pick would certainly be that Denver has already won games in the 2023 NBA Finals by double digits. While that may be true, did anyone really expect the #8-seeded Heat to even be here?
In fact, they’re just the second #8 seed to make the NBA Finals. Similarly, not only have they covered significant spreads, but they’ve also often won outright in those situations. The Boston Celtics were expected to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals for back-to-back seasons, but it was the Heat that ensured that wasn’t the case.
When the Eastern Conference Finals shifted back to Boston with the Heat on the brink of elimination, not only did they cover a 7.5-point spread, but they crushed the Celtics by a final score of 103-84. Miami also pulled off outright upsets as 8.5 and 9.5-point underdogs when on the road against Boston as well.
Let’s also not forget that the Heat eliminated the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, meaning they knocked out each of the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference. The issue in this series is simply not having an answer to Jokic. However, we also don’t expect another outlier performance from Aaron Gordon.
Gordon’s breakout performance in Game 4 was huge for Denver, but he had scored just 11 and 12 points in the two games prior. Better yet, he’s scored over 20 points just three times in the entire postseason. With the expectation that he regresses to the mean given Miami’s tough defense, the Heat can cover such a large spread.
Taking all that into account, our best Heat vs. Nuggets spread pick is on Miami +9 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
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Latest Game 5 Odds & Heat vs. Nuggets Betting Lines Provided by DraftKings
To ensure you have all the information regarding our Heat vs. Nuggets spread pick, we have the latest lines and odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 5 of the NBA Finals below:
Point spread:
- Miami Heat +9 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets -9 (-110)
Money line:
- Miami Heat (+310) vs. Denver Nuggets (-380)
Total (over/under):
- Over 208.5 (-110) vs. Under 208.5 (-110)
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