What are the Braves' looming questions as we approach the trade deadline?
The trade deadline is fast approaching (August 1st AKA this coming Tuesday), and the 64-36 Braves are sitting in the proverbial catbird seat in all of Major League Baseball. They may not be Louisiana Hot Sauce hot anymore (like they were in June), but the club has added to its division lead since the All-Star Break and is a virtual lock for the postseason. That said, merely winning the division again isn't the ultimate goal, so let's take a look at the some of the burning questions that GM Alex Anthopoulos and co. are likely pondering right now.
OK, who are we trading for?
A loaded question, but until Tuesday comes and goes, this will be at the forefront of everyone's minds (and not just in Atlanta). Lindsay and Jake have been peppering the site with trade deadline primers for a while now (and the Braves have already made a couple of modest moves), but this is one of those questions that comes with a bunch of caveats. The main one is that Alex Anthopoulos has developed a reputation for moving silently, zigging when everyone expects him to zag. But beyond that, let's take stock of what the Braves already have.
All right, then - are we getting enough out of LF/DH?
It's pitching the Braves have acquired already and pitching that the team is most often connected to on the trade market, but let's actually start with one of the longest-running sore spots on the roster. Remember just last month when seemingly the whole team was absolutely mashing? Some of those guys have been mashing pretty much all year (Acuña, Olson, Murphy) while others appeared to turn a proverbial corner (Michael Harris II, Eddie Rosario). And then you had Marcell Ozuna, who had quietly gotten it going in May and then carried it over into June. But have those trends continued?
Well, for Harris, yes. He's backed up his June wRC+ of 167 with a July figure of +130 so far. And of course he's a strong defensive contributor as well. That's not the case for Rosario or Ozuna, however. Ozuna's strong May and June totals (wRC+ of 158 and 148 respectively for those months) have been sandwiched in between his famously awful March/April (wRC+ of 10) and a less widely derided July (wRC+ of 13). The strikeout and walk rates are particularly unsightly, with Marcell striking out 30.7% of the time this month compared to a measly 4% walk rate. (Even in March and April, his BB rate was 11.9%.) It should be noted that Ozuna's underperformance relative to his xwOBA can be borderline hysterical at times, but still these long cold stretches are outer space cold, as depicted below (H/T to Lindsay for the lead on this graphic).
As for Rosario, he's had his worst month so far in July, seeing his insanely high June numbers (.325 average, 1.115 OPS, 193 wRC+) crater to a .154 average, .450 OPS, and a mere 18 wRC+. And while Eddie is nominally one half of a platoon in left, the Braves see so few left-handed opposing starters that he's essentially an everyday player. Having him and Ozuna hitting back-to-back in the lineup every night is a problem at the moment, so what do the Braves do?
Do we see the catchers get starts again at DH?
Travis d'Arnaud and Sean Murphy have been incredible this season, and when Ozuna was mired in his early-season slump, they each got starts at DH on days they weren't catching (seven for d'Arnaud and five for Murphy). The samples are small and easily ignored, but for what it's worth, Travis hit fairly well as a DH (d'H) while Murph struggled. But with Chadwick Tromp still on the 40-man roster, this is an idea that could be resurrected if Ozuna keeps cratering.
Aside from them, the Braves could DH guys on a rotating basis, giving regulars quasi-days off by DHing them for a game here and there. The Braves have been resistant to resting guys (more on this later) and really seem to value having a steady everyday lineup, so I have no expectation that we'll see this option utilized.
Do the Braves need to add an outfielder?
The team has been connected to Adam Duvall by multiple sources, but anything that happens here will likely require the Braves to make a real decision on Rosario and/or Ozuna. As Lindsay said in a different article today, with Kevin Pillar in place as the right-handed platoon LF/defensive replacement, Duvall doesn't really fit as purely a corner outfield option. He brings prodigious power and is a strong defender historically, but Pillar is also a strong defender and has been great in his limited role for the Braves this season.
Adding Duvall, or any other notable OF option, would probably require the team to decide to move on from Rosario or Ozuna on a more permanent basis (at least in the short-term). Ozuna's contract remains a sore spot here, while Rosario's deal could expire after this season (the team has an option for 2024). Another factor is the general right-handedness of the Braves' lineup, which brings us to...
Should the Braves add a left-handed hitter via trade?
Ronald Acuña, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Orlando Arcia, and both catchers are all right-handed, and the imbalance between Ozzie Albies' right and left-handed production is well-known (wRC+ of 182 righty and 100 lefty). The Braves regularly run two lefties out there every day - Matt Olson (145 wRC+) and Michael Harris II (106 wRC+). And as mentioned, Eddie Rosario plays almost every day (100 wRC+).
With all this said, perhaps the Braves would be best served to look at a left-handed option to either replace Rosario or mix in with/replace Ozuna at DH. While visions of Juan Soto might dance in people's heads, realistically the lefty OF/DH market is pretty thin. The Cubs' Cody Bellinger is one of the most prized targets on the trading block full stop, and the Braves may not be able to get in a bidding war for him. After that, there appear to be a lot of righties available - guys like Duvall - but it's mostly crickets on the left-hand side. But AA has his ways, so we shouldn't rule out anything from him.
What about pitching?
Everybody always wants pitching, and we should expect the Braves to continue to seek more arms. The moves made so far feel more like depth pieces, and in an ideal world, Atlanta can solve any pitching concerns by getting guys like Max Fried, Kyle Wright, A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez, Dylan Lee, and Nick Anderson back healthy. But while Fried and Minter are currently on rehab assignments and seem close to coming back, the situation is murkier regarding the other guys. Particularly...
What's up with Kyle Wright?
Mark Bowman tweeted last week that Wright's ETA now seems to be early September. If he can come back and immediately slot into the rotation with no issues, then that would obviously be a huge boon to the team, but him regaining his 2022 form in such a short period of time after being out for so long is clearly something the front office can't rely on. Any discussion of the Braves adding a starting pitcher likely involves the club making the assumption that they can't count on getting anything out of Wright this season.
So do we need another starter?
Fried's imminent return will hopefully settle the rotation, as it's been Strider-Morton-Elder-?-? for most of the season now. (It's really amazing how well the Braves have done under those circumstances.) Recently acquired Yonny Chirinos seems likely to get a shot at starting soon, and Michael Soroka may still factor into the team's plans despite getting sent back to Gwinnett on Sunday. But even with Fried back and healthy, there's a rotation spot no one has fully claimed yet.
Also, you always want to be prepared in case someone else gets hurt or falls off. I'm sure it's occurred to Brian Snitker, Rick Kranitz, and Alex Anthopoulos that Bryce Elder has never pitched a full major league season before. His Sunday start at Milwaukee was encouraging, but the two blow-up outings he had before that likely set off some alarm bells in the front office. He logged 137.2 and 159 innings respectively in 2021 and 2022 when you combine all his professional outings, so that's encouraging. He's at 120.2 so far in 2023 when you add in his AAA appearance back in March, so he should have a few more starts yet before he begins to nudge into uncharted workload territory. But he's also outpitched his peripherals all year. Some guys can manage to do that over the long haul, and Elder's unusual pitch movement profile could point to him being one of those guys. Or he's simply due for some serious regression, and the club may want to be out in front of that if and when it arrives.
So who could they target?
Lists of potentially available starting pitchers are everywhere right now, but one thing to note is how much the Braves like to take on buy-low projects. All three of the arms they've brought in via trade or waiver claim already fall into this camp, but I'd think here more along the lines of trading for Kevin Gausman back in 2018. The Gas Man had been productive for then-crummy Orioles teams prior to the trade, but a poor supporting cast (especially defensively) had contributed to him underperforming compared to his peripherals (xFIP of 4.06 versus a FIP of 4.58 and ERA of 4.43). He came to Atlanta and flipped the script (2.87 ERA and 3.78 FIP against a 4.46 xFIP). The Braves then gave up on him the following season in arguably the worst personnel decision of the Anthopoulos era.
Here, the team would likely love to land an arm that's cost-efficient and offers multiple years of team control, but guys like that will likely command sizable returns. The relatively barren Braves farm system will complicate matters, so maybe instead look for somebody the club can acquire that doesn't (A) require a huge prospect haul to get, (B) is someone the Braves could use in the postseason either as a starter or a reliever, and (C) has a contract that's commensurate with that kind of role. (As Lindsay wrote yesterday, Lance Lynn may not fit this bill.) Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers is a good call here, but he'll be coveted by multiple teams. The Cardinals also have some intriguing pitchers to move, but knowing AA, the Braves will get a guy no one is expecting.
What was that about rest you mentioned earlier?
Pivoting away from the trade market to wrap this up, I'd really like to see the Braves start resting their regulars more. By my count, there are 11 guys who've played in every game so far this season, and the Braves have four of them (Acuña, Albies, Olson, Riley). No other team has more than two (Seattle has two). I know when Freddie Freeman was here, he was adamant about playing every day (he's played in all the Dodgers' games this season), but stuff like this shows that it wasn't just Freddie's idea. The regular season is a grind, and the ever expanding playoffs are another grind. Even after a mild cold spell (the Braves are 4-8 in their last 12 games), Atlanta still has a commanding ten-game division lead. Let's not give it our all to win relatively meaningless July and August games and leave nothing for October, especially after seeing last year's thrilling regular season be immediately followed by a humbling playoff loss to the third-place Phillies, with injuries, illness, and a general lack of spark all playing a major role.
And don't think of this as a "that's what Bobby would've done" sort of thing, as in the entirety of Cox's second tenure as Braves manager (1990-2010), only three Braves played a full 162 - Andruw Jones in 1999 and Jeff Francoeur in 2006 and 2007. It happened just once during Fredi Gonzalez's run - Freddie Freeman in 2014. It's happened four times already under Snit - Freeman and Nick Markakis in 2018, and then Matt Olson and Dansby Swanson last season. (Note that Fred McGriff played all 144 games in the shortened 1995 season, and Freeman, Swanson, and Marcell Ozuna played all 60 in the 2020 Covid year.)
Rest vs. rust is an endless debate, and the data is murky when you look at whether it's good or bad to clinch your division early versus having to fight to the last day before making the playoffs (i.e. how do you handle your best players down the stretch specifically). But across the whole season, building rest days in for everyday players is shown to be a good thing. (There are more recent Baseball Prospectus articles on this same topic, but they're behind a paywall.) Remember, most off days are used for travel, and all four of the guys who've played in every game so far also traveled to Seattle for the All-Star Game and played in it. You want to give your players the best chance possible to be as close to 100% in October, where things like regular season performance can suddenly mean absolutely nothing in the small sample-dominated postseason.
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