Four Expectations for Cincinnati Reds Pitching Staff Ahead of 2024 Season

One area of pitching that really hurt the Reds last year was their inability to force grounders. Only one team in the majors had a worse ground ball rate: the Oakland Athletics. Over 60% of the balls put into play against the Reds were either line drives or fly balls. That rate is bad for any team, but especially a group that plays 81 games at Great American Ballpark.

As wonderful a home park as the Reds have, it is consistently near the top of the league in home runs. Last year, GABP saw the third-most homers in the league. Keeping the ball out of the air is paramount for the Reds' staff.

The return of Nick Lodolo will help. He has a 46% ground ball rate in his very short tenure in the bigs. Andrew Abbott will need to improve in this area if he's going to be part of the rotation. 

The Reds walked nearly four batters per nine innings last year (3.81), which was 27th in the league and worst in the National League. Only the Angels, White Sox, and Athletics issued more walks per nine innings. The three teams directly ahead of the Reds were the Mets, Pirates, and Nationals. None of those teams were in playoff contention like the Reds. 

No team outside the top-20 in walks-per-nine made the playoffs.

Brandon Williamson issued three walks-per-nine, which led the team. On the other hand, Lucas Sims (5.75) and Alexis Diaz (4.81) inflated the Reds' number of walks.

The Reds ranked 23rd in innings pitched by their starters last year. They were one of eight teams to pitch less than 800 total innings. League average was right around 840 innings. The Reds also averaged just under five innings per start and had a quality start percentage of 27%. Only the Royals, Rockies, Tigers, and A’s had the same or worse percentage.

11 of the 14 playoff teams were ranked in the top-15 of total innings pitched by their starters. If the Reds can improve to just league average they will do two things: they will take a lot of stress off the bullpen and they will provide stability for the Reds run prevention that it sorely lacked in 2023.

Graham Ashcraft led the team in innings but started just 26 games. No other Red started 25 games. If they can increase their innings (which would mean they’re pitching well enough to increase their innings count) then the whole of Reds pitching will benefit.

Last year, the Reds bullpen ranked fifth in MLB in fWAR. Their cumulative performance is what kept the Reds alive. How they did it is more luck than anyone wants to admit.

Reds relief pitchers struggled with walks. It's tough to overcome your two best arms out of the bullpen having two of the highest walk rates on the team. The bullpen, as a whole, allowed 4.21 walks per nine innings. When you combine that with the 27th ranked strikeout ratio in the league—it shows they were too reliant on getting outs via contact. Even that is sketchy at best.

Reds relievers have the lowest ground ball rate and the fourth-lowest batting average on balls in play. That means that not only were they allowing a lot of hits to be line drives or fly balls, but they also got luckier than most teams with those balls turning into outs. The Reds also saw a lot of luck for their bullpen when it came to fly balls that turned into home runs. At 10%, only one other team had a lower ratio of home runs per fly balls.

Nick Krall added bonafide talent to the bullpen this offseason. Brent Suter is adept at keeping the ball on the ground and so is Nick Martinez. Emilio Pagan limits walks and posted one of the better expected batting average against (xBA, .221) in the league. These guys will elevate the pen and hopefully Diaz and Sims do a better job of limiting their walks.

The sky is truly the limit for the Reds pitching staff in 2024. They have a lot of work to do if they're going to reach their potential. 

They’ve got the right guy on the case. Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson is the right man to lead their efforts. Expectations are high, but they have the talent to deliver this season.